The electrification of the road transport sector is seen as a necessary component to the urban decarbonization. A scenario analysis of electric cars deployment is developed by employing the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning platform to build a bottom-up model to evaluate the contribution to the energy transition in the long term. The difference with similar models available in the literature is represented by a detailed description of the car stock, which comprises twenty-eight categories of cars. The car stock is segmented according to the fuel, i.e., petrol and gasoline, engine displacement, i.e., small and medium, and fuel efficiency according to the Euro standard, i.e., from Euro 0 to Euro 6d. Such features can be applied to any EU country; therefore, the model has a European Union-wise applicability. To show the model effectiveness, an application to the Italian automotive sector focused on the estimation of energy consumption and polluting emissions is proposed in the period 2018–2030. The evolution of the Italian car stock and the corresponding energy consumption, emissions and externalities are estimated. The simulations show that a significant reduction in energy consumption up to 23% and a decrease of emissions is realistically achievable through the deployment of electric cars.

公路运输部门的电气化被视为城市脱碳的必要组成部分。通过使用远程能源替代计划平台构建自下而上的模型来评估电动汽车在长期内对能源转换的贡献，从而开发了电动汽车部署的情景分析。与文献中可用的类似模型的差异由对汽车存货的详细描述来表示，其中包括28种汽车。根据燃油（例如汽油和汽油），发动机排量（即中小型）和燃油效率（按欧洲标准，即从0欧元到6d欧元）细分汽车库存。这些功能可以应用于任何欧盟国家；因此，该模型具有欧洲联盟适用性。为了显示模型的有效性，提议在2018-2030年期间向意大利汽车行业申请一项侧重于能源消耗和污染排放估算的应用程序。估计了意大利汽车存量的演变以及相应的能源消耗，排放和外部性。仿真表明，通过部署电动汽车，实际上可以实现高达23％的能源消耗显着减少和排放量的减少。