Recent large-scale migration flows from rural areas of the Mekong Delta (MKD) to larger cities in the South-East (SE) region of Vietnam have created the largest migration corridor in the country. This migration trend has further contributed to greater rural–urban disparities and widened the development gap between regions. In this study, our aim is to understand the migration dynamics and determine the most critical factors affecting the behavior of migrants in the MKD region. We present an agent-based model and incorporate the Theory of Planned Behavior to effectively break down migration intention into related components and contributing factors. A genetic algorithm is used for automated calibration and sensitivity analysis of model parameters, in order to validate our agent-based model. We further explore the migration behavior of people in certain demographic groups and delineate migration flows across cities and provinces from the MKD to the SE region.

最近，从湄公河三角洲（MKD）的农村地区到越南东南（SE）地区的大城市的大规模移民潮已经在该国创造了最大的移民走廊。这种移民趋势进一步加剧了城乡差距，并扩大了区域之间的发展差距。在这项研究中，我们的目的是了解移民动态，并确定影响MKD地区移民行为的最关键因素。我们提出了一个基于主体的模型，并结合了计划行为理论，以有效地将迁移意图分解为相关组件和影响因素。遗传算法用于模型参数的自动校准和敏感性分析，以验证我们基于代理的模型。