The secondary dust explosion ignited by the primary explosion energy often causes greater damage to the just destroyed carrier. Therefore, the study of explosion risk as well as the risk reduction effect with suppression is key guard against the secondary and derivative explosions. A novel risk assessment methodology is presented based on Monte Carlo theory for numerically fitting pressure’s uncertainty changes and Crystal ball simulation for calculating explosion risk and its distribution probability of hazardous explosive dust. Taking the aluminum dust of a polishing process as an example, the fitted results show that the tested explosion pressure in laboratory presents the shape of lognormal distribution with average pressure of 0.27 MPa on the condition of 500 g/m³ aluminum dust with median particle diameter at 35 μm. The simulated results show that the risk possibility of myringorupture injury, pneumorrhagia injury, and structure damage all approaches 100% because of the high explosion pressure considering the potential percentage of injury or damage at 50%. However, the risk possibility reduces to 14.27%, 0.13%, and 42.05% with suppressants of ammonium dihydrogen phosphate at 10%, respectively. The proposed method of risk assessment for dust explosion and its suppression provides scientific basis for strategy optimization of dust explosion protection and safe production of fine explosive dust related industry.

由一次爆炸能量点燃的二次粉尘爆炸通常会对刚毁坏的运输工具造成更大的损害。因此，对爆炸危险性以及具有抑制作用的危险降低效果的研究是防范二次爆炸和衍生爆炸的关键措施。提出了一种新的风险评估方法，该方法基于蒙特卡洛理论对压力的不确定性变化进行数值拟合，并基于水晶球模拟计算爆炸危险及其危险爆炸粉尘的分布概率。以抛光过程中的铝粉为例，拟合结果表明，在500 g / m ³的条件下，实验室测试的爆炸压力呈对数正态分布形状，平均压力为0.27 MPa。铝尘，中值粒径为35μm。模拟结果表明，由于爆炸压力较高，考虑到50％的潜在伤害或损害，Myerorupture伤害，肺出血，以及结构损坏的风险可能性都接近100％。但是，将磷酸二氢铵抑制剂的含量分别降低到10％时，风险可能性分别降低到14.27％，0.13％和42.05％。提出的粉尘爆炸危险性评价方法及其抑制方法，为粉尘爆炸防护策略的优化和粉尘行业的安全生产提供了科学依据。