ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the extent and determinants of business cycle synchronization among the US states during the period 2002–11. Phase synchronization is not measured based on one national reference series, but rather is assessed using pairwise synchronization indicators computed over the business cycles of all US state pairs. The analysis is based on a natural and intuitive measure of synchronization: the fraction of observations when the cyclical phase is the same for both states in each state pair. Synchronization indicators have a spatially correlated structure. The economic determinants of synchronization are studied using spatial econometric models. Business cycles are more synchronized between those states characterized by strong commercial links and a similar structure in terms of industrialization, labour market characteristics and openness.

摘要

本文调查了 2002-11 年期间美国各州经济周期同步的程度和决定因素。相位同步不是基于一个国家参考系列来衡量的，而是使用在美国所有州对的商业周期中计算的成对同步指标进行评估的。该分析基于自然和直观的同步测量：当每个状态对中的两个状态的循环相位相同时，观察的分数。同步指标具有空间相关的结构。使用空间计量经济学模型研究同步的经济决定因素。在商业联系紧密且工业化结构相似的国家之间，商业周期更加同步，