Assessing extinction risk from climate drivers is a major goal of conservation science. Few studies, however, include a long-term perspective of climate change. Without explicit integration, such long-term temperature trends and their interactions with short-term climate change may be so dominant that they blur or even reverse the apparent direct relationship between climate change and extinction. Here we evaluate how observed genus-level extinctions of arthropods, bivalves, cnidarians, echinoderms, foraminifera, gastropods, mammals and reptiles in the geological past can be predicted from the interaction of long-term temperature trends with short-term climate change. We compare synergistic palaeoclimate interaction (a short-term change on top of a long-term trend in the same direction) to antagonistic palaeoclimate interaction such as long-term cooling followed by short-term warming. Synergistic palaeoclimate interaction increases extinction risk by up to 40%. The memory of palaeoclimate interaction including the climate history experienced by ancestral lineages can be up to 60 Myr long. The effect size of palaeoclimate interaction is similar to other key factors such as geographic range, abundance or clade membership. Insights arising from this previously unknown driver of extinction risk might attenuate recent predictions of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss.

评估气候驱动因素造成的灭绝风险是保护科学的一个主要目标。然而，很少有研究包括气候变化的长期观点。如果没有明确的整合，这种长期温度趋势及其与短期气候变化的相互作用可能会占据主导地位，以至于模糊甚至逆转气候变化与灭绝之间明显的直接关系。在这里，我们评估了如何根据长期温度趋势与短期气候变化的相互作用来预测地质历史上观察到的节肢动物、双壳类、刺胞动物、棘皮动物、有孔虫、腹足类、哺乳动物和爬行动物的属级灭绝。我们比较了协同古气候相互作用（在同一方向的长期趋势之上的短期变化）与拮抗古气候相互作用，例如长期降温后短期变暖。协同的古气候相互作用使灭绝风险增加了 40%。古气候相互作用的记忆，包括祖先世系所经历的气候历史，最长可达 60 Myr。古气候相互作用的影响大小与地理范围、丰度或进化枝成员等其他关键因素相似。从这个以前未知的灭绝风险驱动因素中产生的见解可能会削弱最近对气候变化引起的生物多样性丧失的预测。古气候相互作用的记忆，包括祖先世系所经历的气候历史，最长可达 60 Myr。古气候相互作用的影响大小与地理范围、丰度或进化枝成员等其他关键因素相似。从这个以前未知的灭绝风险驱动因素中产生的见解可能会削弱最近对气候变化引起的生物多样性丧失的预测。古气候相互作用的记忆，包括祖先世系所经历的气候历史，最长可达 60 Myr。古气候相互作用的影响大小与地理范围、丰度或进化枝成员等其他关键因素相似。从这个以前未知的灭绝风险驱动因素中产生的见解可能会削弱最近对气候变化引起的生物多样性丧失的预测。