Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 °C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 °C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 °C and −0.7 to −0.1 °C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

《巴黎协定》缔约方同意将全球平均气温升高“远低于工业化前水平2°C，并努力将气温升高限制在工业化前水平以上1.5°C”。到目前为止，监测人类引起的气候强迫对变暖的贡献是了解这些目标取得进展的关键。在这里，我们使用来自检测和归因模型比对项目的气候模型模拟，以及正则化的最佳指纹，以表明 2010-2019 年相对于 1850 年，人为强迫导致全球平均近地表气温升高了 0.9 至 1.3 °C –1900 年，而观测到的升温 1.1 °C。温室气体和气溶胶分别贡献了 1.2 至 1.9 °C 和 -0.7 至 -0.1 °C 的变化，而自然强迫的贡献可以忽略不计。