Future changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ; a narrow band of heavy precipitation in the tropics) with climate change could affect the livelihood and food security of billions of people. Although models predict a future narrowing of the ITCZ, uncertainties remain large regarding its future position, with most past work focusing on zonal-mean shifts. Here we use projections from 27 state-of-the-art climate models and document a robust zonally varying ITCZ response to the SSP3-7.0 scenario by 2100, with a northward shift over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean and a southward shift in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The zonally varying response is consistent with changes in the divergent atmospheric energy transport and sector-mean shifts of the energy flux equator. Our analysis provides insight about mechanisms influencing the future position of the tropical rain belt and may allow for more-robust projections of climate change impacts.

随着气候变化，热带辐合带（ITCZ；热带强降水的狭窄带）的位置未来发生变化可能会影响数十亿人的生计和粮食安全。尽管模型预测 ITCZ 未来会缩小，但其未来位置的不确定性仍然很大，因为过去的大多数工作都集中在区域均值变化上。在这里，我们使用 27 个最先进的气候模型的预测，并记录了到 2100 年 ITCZ 对 SSP3-7.0 情景的强烈区域变化响应，其中东非和印度洋向北移动，东部向南移动太平洋和大西洋。纬向变化的响应与发散的大气能量传输和能量通量赤道的扇区平均偏移的变化一致。我们的分析提供了有关影响热带雨带未来位置的机制的见解，并可能有助于对气候变化影响进行更稳健的预测。