Abstract

This paper deals with the time series analysis of precipitation patterns in Africa’s most populated nation using recently developed flexible modelling techniques to study the monthly precipitation data of some major economically viable and highly populated regions in Nigeria. The results indicate that there is a significant trend for Lagos rainfall data, implying that precipitations have systematically increased over time in this city. Additionally, the seasonal component is more prominent in the cases of Kano and Kaunda than for Ibadan and Lagos. The findings of this study have relevant policy implications for forecasting, agricultural planning, relating precipitation variability in Nigeria with standard climate drivers, as well as for disaster or risk reduction in the context of climate change, global warming and migration in the post-pandemic era.

摘要

本文使用最近开发的灵活建模技术，对非洲人口最多的国家的降雨模式进行时间序列分析，以研究尼日利亚一些经济上可行和人口稠密地区的月降水量数据。结果表明，拉各斯的降雨数据有明显的趋势，这表明该城市的降水量已随着时间而系统地增加。此外，与卡巴和拉各斯相比，卡诺和坎达的季节成分更为突出。这项研究的结果对预测，农业计划，将尼日利亚的降水变化与标准气候驱动因素相关以及在气候变化的背景下减少灾害或风险具有相关的政策意义，