Abstract

Globally, cephalopods support large industrial-scale fisheries and small-scale to partly large-scale local artisanal fisheries. They are of increasing economic importance as evidenced by the rapid rise in their global landings from 1950 to 2014. Cephalopods are sensitive to environmental variability and climate change and many if not all species show wide fluctuations in abundance. This is most evident in ommastrephid nerito-oceanic squid since their life cycle is associated with boundary currents that are changing with climate change. The inter-annual variability in catch presents challenges for fishers and managers due to the ‘boom-or-bust’ nature of the fishery. A key barrier to rational management of squid fisheries is the low level of development of fishery forecasting. Despite substantial progress made in relating squid population dynamics to environmental variability and change, several challenges remain to develop forecast products to support squid fisheries management. Ideally, squid fisheries management needs a forecasting system that includes all time-scales of forecasting, and especially short - and medium-terms forecasts. The present overview first provides current knowledge of the effects of climate change and variability on squid population dynamics, challenges and opportunities to advance ecological-fishery forecast products, and finally a roadmap is proposed for future development of forecasts products to support squid sustainable fisheries management. As for the adoption of specific forecasting methods to the squid fishery management process, what is important is the relationship between needs, feasibility, and the ultimate success of a forecast will be determined by whether it is used by end-users.

摘要

在全球范围内，头足类动物支持大型工业规模渔业和小规模到部分大规模的当地手工渔业。从 1950 年到 2014 年，它们的全球登陆量迅速增加就证明了它们的经济重要性日益增加。头足类动物对环境变化和气候变化很敏感，而且许多（如果不是全部）物种的丰度都有很大的波动。这在 ommasrephid nerito-oceanic 鱿鱼中最为明显，因为它们的生命周期与随着气候变化而变化的边界流有关。由于渔业的“繁荣或萧条”性质，渔获量的年际变化给渔民和管理人员带来了挑战。鱿鱼渔业合理管理的一个主要障碍是渔业预报的低水平发展。尽管在将鱿鱼种群动态与环境可变性和变化联系起来方面取得了重大进展，但在开发支持鱿鱼渔业管理的预测产品方面仍然存在一些挑战。理想情况下，鱿鱼渔业管理需要一个预测系统，包括所有时间尺度的预测，尤其是短期和中期预测。本概述首先提供了气候变化和变异对鱿鱼种群动态的影响、挑战和机遇的当前知识，以推进生态渔业预测产品，最后提出了未来发展预测产品以支持鱿鱼可持续渔业管理的路线图。至于在鱿鱼渔业管理过程中采用特定的预测方法，重要的是需求之间的关系，