The effect of climate change on ocean circulation and environmental conditions will likely impact important fisheries species which have a limited habitat range and a prolonged larval dispersal phase. Based on projections from a regional scale ice‐ocean model (RCP 8.5 scenario), we investigated the spatial distribution variability of the bentho‐pelagic northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) preferred depth and thermal habitat and larval settlement patterns in the Newfoundland and Labrador waters for the next 70 years. Our projections of ocean temperature revealed the persistence of major shelf‐scale temperature features, but a gradual increase of bottom water temperatures by more than 4°C by 2090. Such warming led to an expansion of the potentially suitable habitat for northern shrimp from 2010 to 2050 prior to a decline and shift towards more coastal and southern areas from 2060 to 2090. The modification of the northern shrimp suitable habitat distribution, associated with changes in the ocean circulation features, affected the settlement patterns from larval dispersal simulations and the temperatures encountered by larvae. During the projection period, historically important areas were mostly negatively impacted in terms of suitable habitat and settlement potential, whereas areas that had been less important in the past (e.g., the north and the shallow area to the south) were projected to receive more settlers in comparison with the historical period. Our study demonstrated the important role of shelf‐scale processes in determining larval connectivity and suggests that regional scale ocean models are needed to assess potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and ecosystems.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对北部虾类栖息地及其在纽芬兰和拉布拉多大陆架上的连通性的潜在影响

气候变化对海洋环流和环境条件的影响可能会影响重要的渔业物种，这些物种的生境范围有限且幼虫扩散期延长。基于区域尺度冰海模型的预测（RCP 8.5情景），我们调查了北底栖上层虾（Pandalus borealis）的空间分布变异性。）在接下来的70年中，纽芬兰和拉布拉多水域的首选深度和热力栖息地以及幼虫的沉积方式。我们对海洋温度的预测显示出主要的陆架尺度温度特征仍然存在，但是到2090年底水温度将逐渐升高超过4°C。这种变暖导致北部虾的潜在适宜栖息地从2010年扩展到了2010年。到2050年才开始下降，并于2060年至2090年转向更多的沿海和南部地区。北部对虾适宜的栖息地分布的改变，与海洋环流特征的变化有关，影响了幼虫扩散模拟的定居模式和所遇到的温度。幼虫。在预测期间，历史上重要的地区在合适的栖息地和定居潜力方面大多受到负面影响，而过去不那么重要的地区（例如北部和南部的浅水区）预计将比历史上更多的定居者时期。我们的研究证明了架子规模过程在确定幼体连通性中的重要作用，并建议需要区域规模的海洋模型来评估气候变化对渔业和生态系统的潜在影响。