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How are European countries planning for sea level rise?
Ocean & Coastal Management ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2020.105512
Sadie McEvoy , Marjolijn Haasnoot , Robbert Biesbroek

Sea level rise (SLR) is projected to have severe consequences for people and assets in European coastal areas. Planning for SLR is a critical step to ensure timely and adequate responses. Despite our rapidly increasing understanding of SLR impacts and the need to adapt, few studies have looked at how countries are planning for SLR. We surveyed experts from the 32 European countries with a coastline about how their country is planning for SLR. Our online survey focused on four areas: (1) whether SLR planning exists and at what level of government; (2) which climate information and scenarios are used in planning; (3) what planning horizons and corresponding levels of SLR are used; and (4) how uncertainty in handled and whether high-end sea level rise is being considered in planning. Additionally, we asked experts to assess the status of sea level rise planning in their country. Our results indicate that most coastal countries in Europe are planning for SLR, but 25% still do not. We find that the planning horizon 2100 is most common and many countries are considering around 1m (adjusted for local conditions) of SLR at that point in time. However, there are significant differences between countries, which may lead to unequal impacts, over time. We also find that RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are the most widely used climate change scenarios, suggesting that countries are considering high-end climate change in planning, although this does not mean they consider high amounts of SLR. Important questions remain about how planning is realized into levels of protection or preparedness and whether the amounts of SLR and planning horizons currently in use will lead countries to act in time.



中文翻译:

欧洲国家如何计划海平面上升?

预计海平面上升(SLR)将对欧洲沿海地区的人员和财产造成严重影响。规划SLR是确保及时和适当响应的关键步骤。尽管我们对SLR的影响和适应的需求迅速增长,但很少有研究研究各国如何规划SLR。我们调查了来自32个有海岸线的欧洲国家的专家,他们的国家对单反的计划。我们的在线调查集中在四个方面:(1)是否存在SLR计划以及在哪个政府级别上进行;(2)规划中使用了哪些气候信息和情景;(3)使用什么规划视野和相应级别的SLR;(4)在规划中如何考虑不确定性以及是否考虑了高端海平面上升。另外,我们要求专家评估他们国家的海平面上升计划的状况。我们的结果表明,欧洲大多数沿海国家都在计划进行SLR,但仍有25%的国家没有。我们发现,最普遍的规划范围是2100年,许多国家/地区当时都在考虑大约100万(根据当地条件调整)单反相机。但是,随着时间的推移,国家之间存在重大差异,这可能导致不平等的影响。我们还发现,RCP4.5和RCP8.5是使用最广泛的气候变化方案,这表明各国正在规划中考虑高端气候变化,尽管这并不意味着它们会考虑大量的SLR。

更新日期:2021-01-18
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