Abstract

Multiple experts decision-making (MEDM) can be regarded as a situation where a group of experts are invited to provide their opinions by evaluating the given alternatives, and then select the optimal alternative(s). As a useful linguistic expression model, linguistic preference orderings (LPOs) were established in which the order of alternatives and the relationships between two adjacent alternatives are fused well. Considering that prospect theory has the superiority in depicting risk attitudes (risk seeking for losses and risk aversion for gains) during the uncertain decision-making process, this paper develops a consensus model based on prospect theory to deal with MEDM problems with LPOs. Firstly, each LPO provided by expert is transformed into the responding DHLPR with complete consistency. Then, the reference point of expert is determined and the prospect preference matrix is established. Moreover, we can obtain the overall prospect consensus degree for a MEDM problem by calculating the similarity degree between individual and collective prospect preference matrix. Furthermore, a consensus improvement method is developed to complete the consensus reaching process. Finally, we apply the proposed method to deal with a practical MEDM problem involving the construction project investment, and make some comparative analyses with existing methods.

摘要

可以将多专家决策（MEDM）视为一种情况，在这种情况下，邀请一组专家通过评估给定的替代方案来提出自己的意见，然后选择最佳替代方案。作为一种有用的语言表达模型，建立了语言偏好顺序（LPO），其中替代顺序和两个相邻替代之间的关系很好地融合在一起。考虑到前景理论在不确定的决策过程中具有描述风险态度（寻求损失的风险寻求风险和获得收益的风险厌恶）的优势，因此本文基于前景理论开发了一个共识模型来处理LPO的MEDM问题。首先，将专家提供的每个LPO转换为完全一致的响应DHLPR。然后，确定专家的参考点，并建立前景偏好矩阵。此外，我们可以通过计算个体和集体潜在客户偏好矩阵之间的相似度来获得MEDM问题的总体潜在客户共识度。此外，开发了共识改进方法以完成共识达成过程。最后，我们将提出的方法用于解决涉及建设项目投资的实际MEDM问题，并与现有方法进行一些比较分析。开发了共识改进方法以完成共识达成过程。最后，我们将提出的方法用于解决涉及建设项目投资的实际MEDM问题，并与现有方法进行一些比较分析。开发了共识改进方法以完成共识达成过程。最后，我们将提出的方法用于解决涉及建设项目投资的实际MEDM问题，并与现有方法进行一些比较分析。