In this paper, we assess the long‐term effect of floods on food security (as measured by calorie and micronutrient consumption) by applying an instrumental variable approach to data from the Afghanistan National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment survey. To identify the determinants of this effect, we also estimate how floods affect per capita yearly household income and poverty status. We find that exposure to flooding during a 12‐month period decreased daily calorie consumption by approximately 60 kcal while increasing the probability of iron, vitamin A, and vitamin C deficiency by 11, 12, and 27 percentage points, respectively. Controlling for price shocks and income only marginally reduces this flood effect on food security, suggesting that impaired livelihoods (rather than price hikes) are its primary driver. We further determine that exposure to this natural disaster decreases income by about 3% and makes flood‐affected households about 3 percentage points more likely to be poor. Lastly, we show that experience of floods is strongly and significantly associated with lower diet quality and quantity, and with engaging in consumption smoothing coping strategies, such as buying food on credit and taking loans. These findings underscore the serious direct impact of floods on both diet and effective behavioral responses to such shocks while emphasizing the need for targeted micronutrient supplementation in disaster relief and food aid measures even after the period of natural disaster emergency.

中文翻译：

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洪水，粮食安全和应对策略：来自阿富汗的证据

在本文中，我们通过对阿富汗国家风险和脆弱性评估调查的数据应用工具变量方法，评估洪水对粮食安全的长期影响（以卡路里和微量营养素的消耗量衡量）。为了确定这种影响的决定因素，我们还估计了洪水如何影响人均家庭年收入和贫困状况。我们发现，在12个月的时间里遭受洪水侵扰，每天的卡路里消耗量减少了约60 kcal，同时铁，维生素A和维生素C缺乏症的发生率分别增加了11、12和27个百分点。控制价格冲击和收入仅能从某种程度上减少这种洪水对粮食安全的影响，表明生计受损（而非价格上涨）是其主要驱动力。我们进一步确定，遭受自然灾害的影响使收入减少约3％，并使受洪灾影响的家庭的贫困可能性增加约3个百分点。最后，我们表明，洪水的经历与降低饮食的质量和数量，以及参与减少消费的应对策略（例如以信贷方式购买食品和借贷）密切相关，并且具有显着意义。这些发现强调了洪水对饮食和对此类冲击的有效行为的直接直接影响，同时强调即使在自然灾害紧急时期后，在救灾和粮食援助措施中也需要有针对性地补充微量营养素。我们表明，洪水的经历与降低饮食的质量和数量，并参与减少消费的应对策略（例如以信贷方式购买食品和借贷）密切相关，并且具有显着意义。这些发现强调了洪水对饮食和对此类冲击的有效行为的直接直接影响，同时强调即使在自然灾害紧急时期后，在救灾和粮食援助措施中也需要有针对性地补充微量营养素。我们表明，洪水的经历与降低饮食的质量和数量，并参与减少消费的应对策略（例如以信贷方式购买食品和借贷）密切相关，并且具有显着意义。这些发现强调了洪水对饮食和对此类冲击的有效行为的直接直接影响，同时强调即使在自然灾害紧急时期后，在救灾和粮食援助措施中也需要有针对性地补充微量营养素。