Abstract

Today the issue of climate change-induced mobility—whether displacement, migration, or relocation—is receiving increased interest from policy-makers, academics, and the general public. Many are turning to the academic community for answers to basic questions (how many people are expected to move? when? where?) and for directions for future policies (what measures can support people to remain in their communities? If people have to move, how can the disruption be minimized—for those moving and for the affected communities?). While there is a growing body of literature on the issue, the academic community writ large is presently unable to provide consistent comprehensive evidence or guidance on these issues. Most obviously, there is no consensus about what terminology to use—climate change refugee? Environmental migrant? [e.g. Dun and Gemenne 2008. ‘Defining Environmental Migration’, Forced Migration Review, 31: 10–11]. Nor is there consensus on how many people are expected to move; different research projects use different time frames (2030, 2050, 2100, etc.), are based on different assumptions, and (not surprisingly) come up with different estimates, ranging from 50 million to 1 billion migrants associated with the effects of climate change during this century [e.g. Stern, N. (2006) ‘Stern review on the economics of climate change. Executive Summary’. London: HM Treasury. Baird 2007. Human Tide: The Real Migration Crisis: A Christian Aid Report. London: Christian Aid; UN Development Programme (UNDP) (2007/2008). Human Development Report: Fighting Climate Change, Human Solidarity in a Divided World; Kolmannskog 2009, Climate Change, Disaster, Displacement and Migration: Initial Evidence from Africa. New Issues in Refuge Research (Research Paper No. 180). Geneva: UNHCR; Warner 2009. Global Environmental Change and Migration: Governance Challenges. Global Environmental Change].

中文翻译：

---

关于气候变化和移民的研究我们将往何处去？

摘要

今天，由气候变化引起的流动性（无论是流离失所，迁移还是重新安置）问题日益受到政策制定者，学者和公众的关注。许多人正在向学术界寻求基本问题的答案（预计将有多少人迁移？何时何地？），以及未来政策的方向（哪些措施可以支持人们留在社区中？如果人们必须迁移，如何才能最大程度地减少干扰（对于那些迁徙者和受影响社区）？尽管有关此问题的文献越来越多，但学术界普遍认为，目前无法就这些问题提供一致的综合证据或指导。最明显的是，对于使用什么术语（气候变化难民）没有达成共识。环境移民？[例如Dun和Gemenne，2008年。强迫迁移评论，31：10-11]。对于预期会有多少人迁移，也没有达成共识；不同的研究项目使用不同的时间范围（2030、2050、2100等），基于不同的假设，并且（毫不奇怪）得出不同的估计，与气候变化影响相关的移民介于5000万至10亿之间在本世纪[eg Stern，N.（2006）'关于气候变化经济学的斯特恩评论。执行摘要'。伦敦：英国财政部。Baird2007。《人类浪潮：真正的移民危机：基督教援助报告》。伦敦：基督教援助会；联合国开发计划署（UNDP）（2007/2008）。《人类发展报告：应对气候变化，分裂世界中的人类团结》；Kolmannskog 2009，气候变化，灾难，流离失所和移民：来自非洲的初步证据。避难研究中的新问题（第180号研究文件）。日内瓦：难民署；Warner2009。《全球环境变化与移民：治理挑战》。[全球环境变化]。