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Decarbonization pathways of worldwide energy systems – Definition and modeling of archetypes
Applied Energy ( IF 10.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-17 , DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116438
Martin Kueppers , Stephany Nicole Paredes Pineda , Michael Metzger , Matthias Huber , Simon Paulus , Hans Joerg Heger , Stefan Niessen

Energy system models help to find the optimal technology mixes for decarbonization strategies in countries worldwide. To reduce the modeling effort and analyze as many countries as possible, this paper proposes a novel approach of energy system archetypes which can be directly evaluated. These archetypes classify similar countries worldwide independently from their geographic location. Advantages of this idea are the setup of a transferable global database allowing for data reconstruction between countries, market size estimations, and the ability to compare peer countries facing similar challenges. To enable such modeling, a framework is developed in which the archetypes are defined, standardized modeling rules are developed, and the results are evaluated for validation. In a benchmark against simple geographic classifications, the presented clustering approach, which results in 15 archetypes, improves the variance between all countries and their corresponding archetypes by 44% compared to the variance between the countries and their geographic sub-regions. The model results of these archetypes state the need of balancing technologies for the daily cycle of photovoltaic generation and the general importance of flexibility in future decarbonized energy systems. Overall, the results confirm that archetypes are an adequate approach to derive the set of solutions for the decarbonization of worldwide countries.



中文翻译:

全球能源系统的脱碳途径–原型的定义和建模

能源系统模型有助于为全球各国的脱碳策略找到最佳技术组合。为了减少建模工作并尽可能多地分析国家,本文提出了一种可以直接评估的能源系统原型的新方法。这些原型将世界范围内的类似国家/地区与地理位置无关。这种想法的优点是建立了可转移的全球数据库,允许在国家之间进行数据重建,市场规模估计以及比较面临类似挑战的对等国家的能力。为了实现这种建模,开发了一个框架,在该框架中定义了原型,开发了标准化的建模规则,并评估了结果以进行验证。在针对简单地理分类的基准中,提出的聚类方法可产生15个原型,与国家及其地理分区之间的差异相比,可将所有国家及其相应原型的差异提高44%。这些原型的模型结果表明,在光伏发电的日常循环中需要平衡技术,并且在未来的脱碳能源系统中灵活性的普遍重要性也很重要。总的来说,这些结果证实了原型是一种适当的方法,可以为世界各国的脱碳制定一套解决方案。这些原型的模型结果表明,在光伏发电的日常循环中需要平衡技术,并且在未来的脱碳能源系统中灵活性的普遍重要性也很重要。总的来说,这些结果证实了原型是一种适当的方法,可以为世界各国的脱碳制定一套解决方案。这些原型的模型结果表明,在光伏发电的日常循环中需要平衡技术,并且在未来的脱碳能源系统中灵活性的普遍重要性也很重要。总的来说,这些结果证实了原型是一种适当的方法,可以为世界各国的脱碳制定一套解决方案。

更新日期:2021-01-18
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