Objective

This paper examines the ex-ante impacts of on-farm diversification and forward integration strategies on agricultural value chain resilience, with an empirical focus on Ghana’s cocoa value chain.

Method

System dynamics modelling was used to explore five scenarios involving variable-input on-farm diversification pursued by cocoa farmers in Ghana and the simultaneous adoption of forward integration strategies by Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire.

Results and Conclusions

An adaptive strategy involving the simultaneous pursuit of variable-input on-farm diversification and a cooperative forward integration strategy by both Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire was found to result in the highest level of resilience. Under such an adaptive strategy, in-country processors will be the most impacted when the level of safety stocks are below 25% of the average stock level during the period of losses in raw material production.

Significance

The findings suggest that a policy direction that supports on-farm diversification and in-country processing enhances the aggregate resilience of the cocoa value chain, irrespective of the forward integration strategy adopted by Cote d’Ivoire.

中文翻译：

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农场多样化和前向整合对农业价值链弹性的事前影响：系统动力学方法

目的

本文考察了农场多样化和前向整合战略对农业价值链弹性的事前影响，并以加纳的可可价值链为实证重点。

方法

系统动力学建模被用来探索五种情景，其中包括加纳可可农民追求的可变投入农场多样化以及加纳和科特迪瓦同时采用前向整合战略。

结果与结论

加纳和科特迪瓦都采取了同时追求可变投入的农场多样化的自适应策略和合作的前向整合策略，从而产生了最高水平的适应力。在这种适应性策略下，在原材料生产亏损期间，当安全库存水平低于平均库存水平的25％时，对国内加工商的影响最大。

意义

研究结果表明，支持农场多样化和国内加工的政策方向可提高可可价值链的总体弹性，而与科特迪瓦采用的前向整合战略无关。