Abstract

The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase on the intensity and localization of anomalies in sea surface temperature and meteorological parameters associated with two types of El Niño is analyzed. The analysis is based on reanalysis and CMIP5 model data for modern and future climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). It is found that El Niño does not exhibit robust intensification during the positive PDO phase, as mentioned in the previous studies, but the PDO influence is highly dependent on the El Niño type. The canonical El Niño is intensified during the positive PDO phase, while, on the contrary, El Niño Modoki weakens. In future climate the interaction between PDO and El Niño is modified, but the significant intermodel spread does not allow an unambiguous determination of trends.

中文翻译：

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可能气候变化下太平洋年代际振荡对两种厄尔尼诺现象的影响

摘要

分析了太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）阶段对海面温度异常的强度和位置以及与两种厄尔尼诺现象有关的气象参数的影响。该分析基于针对现代和未来气候的重新分析和CMIP5模型数据（RCP 8.5场景）。如先前的研究所述，发现厄尔尼诺现象在正PDO阶段没有表现出强烈的增强作用，但是PDO的影响高度依赖于厄尔尼诺现象。规范的厄尔尼诺现象在正PDO阶段会增强，相反，厄尔尼诺现象Modoki会减弱。在未来的气候中，PDO和厄尔尼诺现象之间的相互作用被修改，但是模型间的显着扩展并不能确定趋势。