Spatial simulation of land-use change scenarios in metropolitan areas is essential for analyzing both the causes and consequences of various future scenarios and is also valuable for land-use planning and management. However, current simulation models primarily focus on spatial and rarely on quantitative driving factors. This article aims to simulate future scenarios of land-use changes in the Tehran metropolitan region (TMR) by combining different models to fill this gap. Thus, in the first step, land-use changes were analyzed in the period 1985, 2000, and 2015. Then, by identifying the impact of driving factors and land-use transition potentials with Logistic regression (LR), land-use changes were allocated using the Cellular Automata (CA) method. Finally, with the validation of the model, four scenarios of the current trend(CT), socioeconomic growth(SEG), ecological-oriented(EO), and integrated development(ID) were suggested with the combination of the System Dynamic (SD) model. The results show that the trend of land-use changes in TMR has led to the destruction of grassland, agricultural, and uncultivated lands and the continuation of this trend will increase the damage of built-up areas on valuable natural and ecological resources. In this way, proximity to roads, distance from built-up areas, and natural factors had the greatest impact on changes. Based on future scenarios in 2030, the change in the SEG-scenario shows a rapid increase in built-up areas (2858km2) and encroachment on agricultural lands (2171km2). In the EO-scenario, destruction of grassland and agricultural lands and the growth of built-up areas will be limited, while CT-scenario leads to the high growth of built-up areas along with destructive impacts on natural and open spaces. In the ID-scenario, the built-up areas and grasslands will increase to 2808km2 and 7438km2, respectively. Accordingly, policy-makers can use simulation of different scenarios to mitigate probable consequences of land-use changes in the metropolitan regions.

中文翻译：

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探索大都市区土地利用情景模拟的综合空间模型

大都市区土地利用变化情景的空间模拟对于分析各种未来情景的原因和后果至关重要，对于土地利用规划和管理也很有价值。然而，当前的模拟模型主要关注空间，很少关注定量驱动因素。本文旨在通过结合不同的模型来填补这一空白，从而模拟德黑兰大都市区 (TMR) 土地利用变化的未来情景。因此，第一步对1985年、2000年和2015年的土地利用变化进行了分析。然后，通过Logistic回归（LR）识别驱动因素和土地利用转变潜力的影响，土地利用变化是使用元胞自动机 (CA) 方法分配。最后，随着模型的验证，当前趋势（CT）的四种场景，结合系统动力学（SD）模型提出社会经济增长（SEG）、生态导向（EO）和综合发展（ID）。结果表明，TMR土地利用变化趋势导致草地、农业和荒地的破坏，这种趋势的持续将加剧建成区对宝贵的自然和生态资源的破坏。这样，距离道路的距离、与建成区的距离以及自然因素对变化的影响最大。基于2030年的未来情景，SEG情景的变化显示，建成区（2858平方公里）和耕地侵占（2171平方公里）快速增加。在EO情景下，对草地和农用地的破坏以及建成区的增长将是有限的，而 CT 情景导致建成区的高速增长以及对自然和开放空间的破坏性影响。在ID情景下，建成区和草地将分别增加到2808平方公里和7438平方公里。因此，政策制定者可以使用不同情景的模拟来减轻大都市区土地利用变化的可能后果。