Climate change can adversely affect the elements of water balance in river basins. This paper studies the effects of climate change on hydro-climatological components of the Gomti River basin using SWAT hydrological model. Model performance has been evaluated through sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation. During calibration and validation time period, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R²) values were obtained as 0.86, 0.87, and 0.79, 0.83, respectively. From the sensitivity analysis, it was found that SCS runoff curve number for antecedent moisture condition II (CN2) is the most sensitive parameter, followed by saturated hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K) and then available water capacity of the soil layer (SOL_AWC) etc. To assess the future climate change effects on hydrological variables, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC_MIROC5, and MOHC_HADGEM2_ES Global Climate Models (GCMs) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were applied in the calibrated SWAT model. The following trends were observed after applying the scenarios—the temperature is rising under RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios, near-century by + 0.24% (+ 0.65), mid-century by + 2.8% (+ 4.62), and end-century by + 5.25% (+ 10.98), respectively. Precipitation is declining under RCP 4.5 (8.5) by − 29.17% (− 29.65%), − 28.69% (− 28.88%), and − 23.82% (− 20.11%), respectively. Evapotranspiration under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) is increasing by + 3.62% (+ 3.95%), + 4.30% (+ 5.38%), and + 5.49% (+ 6.03%), respectively. Consequently, streamflow under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) is declining by − 31.27% (− 23.99%), − 27.45% (− 28.96%), and − 24.30% (− 18.03%), respectively in near, mid, and end century. The findings will be beneficial for managing future water resources in the Gomti River basin.

气候变化可能对流域的水平衡要素产生不利影响。本文利用SWAT水文模型研究了气候变化对Gomti流域水文气候成分的影响。模型性能已通过敏感性分析，校准和验证进行了评估。在校准和验证时间段内，纳什-萨克利夫效率（NSE）和测定系数（R ²）值分别为0.86、0.87和0.79、0.83。从敏感性分析中发现，在先期水分条件II（CN2）下，SCS径流曲线编号是最敏感的参数，其次是饱和水力传导率（SOL_K），然后是土壤层的可用水容量（SOL_AWC）等。为了评估未来气候变化对水文变量的影响，在校准的SWAT模型中应用了RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5下的MIROC-ESM，MIROC-ESM-CHEM，MIROC_MIROC5和MOHC_HADGEM2_ES全球气候模型（GCM）。应用方案后观察到以下趋势：在RCP 4.5（8.5）方案下，温度上升；近世纪末+ 0.24％（+ 0.65）；本世纪中叶+ 2.8％（+ 4.62）；本世纪末分别增加+ 5.25％（+ 10.98）。根据RCP 4.5（8。5）分别为-29.17％（-29.65％），-28.69％（-28.88％）和-23.82％（-20.11％）。RCP 4.5（RCP 8.5）下的蒸散量分别增加+ 3.62％（+ 3.95％），+ 4.30％（+ 5.38％）和+ 5.49％（+ 6.03％）。因此，RCP 4.5（RCP 8.5）下的流量在近，中世纪末和下世纪末分别下降了− 31.27％（− 23.99％），− 27.45％（− 28.96％）和− 24.30％（− 18.03％）。 。这些发现将有助于管理Gomti河流域未来的水资源。世纪中叶和世纪末。这些发现将有助于管理Gomti河流域未来的水资源。世纪中叶和世纪末。这些发现将有助于管理Gomti河流域未来的水资源。