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Total phosphorus and climate are equally important predictors of water quality in lakes
Aquatic Sciences ( IF 2.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 , DOI: 10.1007/s00027-021-00776-w
Arnab Shuvo , Catherine M. O’Reilly , Kevin Blagrave , Carolyn Ewins , Alessandro Filazzola , Derek Gray , Octavia Mahdiyan , Luke Moslenko , Roberto Quinlan , Sapna Sharma

Water quality degradation is one of the largest threats to freshwater ecosystems. Nutrient inputs, land use changes, and climate are expected to be the most important drivers of water quality degradation. Here, we quantify the relative influence of nutrient inputs, climate, and lake geomorphometry on primary production in freshwater lakes globally, using chlorophyll a (chla) as a proxy. We used a large lake chlorophyll database that included chla and total phosphorus, in addition to lake geomorphometric variables (mean depth, watershed area, elevation, surface area, volume, residence time) and climate (air temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, solar radiation) for 2561 freshwater lakes around the globe. Our model was able to explain 60% of the variation in chla concentrations. Of that, total phosphorus (TP) explained 42%, a combination of climate variables explained 38%, and geomorphometrics explained 20% of the variation. Although there have been increased efforts and regulations in place for land use and farming, nutrient inputs continue to be the leading cause of primary production in lakes. However, the influence of climatic variables acting synergistically (temperature, precipitation, cloud cover and solar radiation) is nearly equal to that of total phosphorus, suggesting nutrient management efforts are not sufficient alone to mitigate water quality degradation. Our findings underscore the critical need to incorporate climate factors into water quality management given current climate change.

中文翻译:

总磷和气候是湖泊水质的同等重要预测因子

水质退化是淡水生态系统面临的最大威胁之一。养分投入、土地利用变化和气候预计将成为水质退化的最重要驱动因素。在这里,我们使用叶绿素 a (chla) 作为代理,量化养分输入、气候和湖泊地貌测量对全球淡水湖泊初级生产的相对影响。除了湖泊地貌变量(平均深度、流域面积、海拔、表面积、体积、停留时间)和气候(气温、降水、云量、太阳辐射)之外,我们还使用了一个包含叶绿素和总磷的大型湖泊叶绿素数据库) 用于全球 2561 个淡水湖。我们的模型能够解释 60% 的 chla 浓度变化。其中,总磷 (TP) 解释了 42%,气候变量的组合解释了 38%,地貌测量解释了 20% 的变化。尽管在土地使用和耕作方面加大了努力并制定了法规,但养分投入仍然是湖泊初级生产的主要原因。然而,协同作用的气候变量(温度、降水、云量和太阳辐射)的影响几乎等于总磷的影响,这表明仅靠养分管理工作不足以缓解水质退化。我们的研究结果强调,鉴于当前的气候变化,迫切需要将气候因素纳入水质管理。尽管在土地使用和耕作方面加大了努力并制定了法规,但养分投入仍然是湖泊初级生产的主要原因。然而,协同作用的气候变量(温度、降水、云量和太阳辐射)的影响几乎等于总磷的影响,这表明仅靠养分管理工作不足以缓解水质退化。我们的研究结果强调,鉴于当前的气候变化,迫切需要将气候因素纳入水质管理。尽管在土地使用和耕作方面加大了努力并制定了法规,但养分投入仍然是湖泊初级生产的主要原因。然而,协同作用的气候变量(温度、降水、云量和太阳辐射)的影响几乎等于总磷的影响,这表明仅靠养分管理工作不足以缓解水质退化。我们的研究结果强调,鉴于当前的气候变化,迫切需要将气候因素纳入水质管理。表明养分管理努力不足以缓解水质退化。我们的研究结果强调,鉴于当前的气候变化,迫切需要将气候因素纳入水质管理。表明养分管理努力不足以缓解水质退化。我们的研究结果强调,鉴于当前的气候变化,迫切需要将气候因素纳入水质管理。
更新日期:2021-01-01
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