ABSTRACT

In the early days of social media, social scientists speculated that it could support democracy because large media conglomerates could not dominate it. Regarding climate change, research documents the influence of the fossil fuel industry in climate denial discourses in the traditional media. Therefore, a similar hope emerged that a more democratized platform would see less polarization in belief about climate change's scientific basis. However, online public opinion about climate change continues to be extremely polarized, and the social forces behind it are not well understood. Here, we examine the role of one proposed mechanism for the systemic polarization and spread of disinformation in online discourses - the automated social media bot. This article pioneers the use of bot detection software on climate change discussion on Twitter, using automated monitoring of 6.8 million tweets. We examine the period around the time of U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on June 1, 2017. We find that the announcement generated an immediate online social movement response with very low suspected bot presence. Prior to and afterwards, however, suspected bots were responsible for approximately 25% of original tweets. Additionally, we find that suspected bots were more frequent in some topic areas than others, including denialist discourses focused on research questioning the reality or importance of climate change.

Key policy insights

• On an average day during our study period, automated bots produced an estimated one-quarter of all original tweets referencing climate change and global warming.

• Bots were more active in some discussion areas than others - including climate denialist messages.

• President Trump's announcement of the U.S.'s planned withdrawal from the Paris Agreement generated an immediate online social movement response with very low suspected bot presence.

• For social media to deliver on its promise of a decentralized and democratic forum, automated accounts need to be identified, marginalized, and removed.

摘要

在社交媒体的早期，社会科学家推测它可以支持民主，因为大型媒体集团无法主宰它。关于气候变化，研究记录了化石燃料行业在传统媒体否认气候的话语中的影响。因此，出现了类似的希望，即更加民主化的平台会减少对气候变化科学基础的看法的两极分化。然而，网络上关于气候变化的舆论持续两极分化，其背后的社会力量并没有得到很好的理解。在这里，我们研究了一种拟议的在线讨论中系统极化和虚假信息传播机制的作用 - 自动化社交媒体机器人。本文开创了使用机器人检测软件在 Twitter 上讨论气候变化的先河，使用自动监控 680 万条推文。我们研究了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于 2017 年 6 月 1 日宣布美国退出《巴黎协定》前后的时期。我们发现，该公告立即引起了在线社会运动的反应，而且疑似机器人的存在率非常低。然而，在此之前和之后，大约 25% 的原始推文都是由疑似机器人负责的。此外，我们发现疑似机器人在某些主题领域比其他领域更频繁，包括专注于质疑气候变化现实或重要性的研究的否认论者话语。我们发现，该公告立即引发了在线社会运动的反应，疑似机器人的存在率非常低。然而，在此之前和之后，大约 25% 的原始推文都是由疑似机器人负责的。此外，我们发现疑似机器人在某些主题领域比其他领域更频繁，包括专注于质疑气候变化现实或重要性的研究的否认论者话语。我们发现，该公告立即引发了在线社会运动的反应，疑似机器人的存在率非常低。然而，在此之前和之后，大约 25% 的原始推文都是由疑似机器人负责的。此外，我们发现疑似机器人在某些主题领域比其他主题领域更频繁，包括专注于质疑气候变化现实或重要性的研究的否认论者话语。

关键政策见解

• 在我们研究期间的平均一天，自动化机器人产生了大约四分之一的关于气候变化和全球变暖的原始推文。

• 机器人在某些讨论领域比其他领域更活跃——包括气候否认论者的信息。

• 特朗普总统宣布美国计划退出《巴黎协定》后，立即引起了在线社会运动的反应，疑似机器人的存在率非常低。

• 为了让社交媒体兑现其去中心化和民主论坛的承诺，需要识别、边缘化和删除自动化帐户。