Abstract

Recently, there has been an increasing trend in traffic crash fatalities in the United States, including the State of Arizona. Given this fact, it is imperative to analyze factors that affect crash frequency, particularly those occurring on high-speed freeways. To address this issue, this study utilizes crash data from interstate freeways to explore factors affecting the frequency of crashes with a focus on the impacts of weather (precipitation, wind, etc.). Negative binomial models with random parameters were estimated to examine the effects of several variables on crash frequency. Characteristics of crashes involving different vehicle types were examined through estimation of separate models for passenger vehicle–, freight-, and motorcycle-involved crashes. The study also utilized different weather data sources which have not been considered jointly in previous research (both simulated and observed weather data), providing new insights on the feasibility of using simulated weather data in traffic safety analyses. The analyses of the impacts of weather on passenger vehicle crashes provided inconsistent results between different weather data collection methods; however, results were consistent for the freight-involved analysis. Ultimately, the findings provide important insights that may be useful in planning countermeasures to improve freeway safety and guide further research.

摘要

最近，包括亚利桑那州在内的美国交通事故死亡人数呈上升趋势。鉴于这一事实，必须分析影响碰撞频率的因素，特别是那些发生在高速高速公路上的因素。为了解决这个问题，本研究利用州际高速公路的碰撞数据来探索影响碰撞频率的因素，重点是天气（降水、风等）的影响。估计具有随机参数的负二项式模型以检查几个变量对碰撞频率的影响。通过对涉及乘用车、货运和摩托车事故的单独模型的估计，检查了涉及不同车辆类型的事故特征。该研究还利用了以前研究中未联合考虑的不同天气数据源（模拟和观测天气数据），为在交通安全分析中使用模拟天气数据的可行性提供了新的见解。天气对乘用车碰撞的影响分析在不同的天气数据收集方法之间提供了不一致的结果；然而，涉及货运的分析的结果是一致的。最终，这些发现提供了重要的见解，可能有助于制定改善高速公路安全的对策并指导进一步的研究。天气对乘用车碰撞的影响分析在不同的天气数据收集方法之间提供了不一致的结果；然而，涉及货运的分析的结果是一致的。最终，这些发现提供了重要的见解，可能有助于制定改善高速公路安全的对策并指导进一步的研究。天气对乘用车碰撞的影响分析在不同的天气数据收集方法之间提供了不一致的结果；然而，涉及货运的分析的结果是一致的。最终，这些发现提供了重要的见解，可能有助于制定改善高速公路安全的对策并指导进一步的研究。