We investigate if financial stress in countries where international banks are headquartered is a major driver of the withdrawal of these banks’ credit to emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that when financial stress, measured by sovereign or bank CDS spreads or corporate bond spreads, increases, international banks decrease their lending to EMEs, which acts as a major driver of capital outflows from EMEs. In particular, financial stress in lender countries is a more important driver than the local financial conditions and macroeconomic fundamentals of EMEs. Such results hold for both the countries that experienced crises and those that did not, during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Such results also generally hold even after the GFC period, but to a lesser extent. Our findings suggest that it is desirable for EME policymakers to promote diversification of lender countries.

我们调查了总部位于国际银行的国家的财务压力是否是这些银行向新兴市场经济体（EME）撤回信贷的主要驱动力。我们发现，当按主权或银行CDS利差或公司债券利差衡量的金融压力增加时，国际银行会减少对新兴市场经济体的贷款，这是新兴市场经济体资本外流的主要驱动力。特别是，与新兴市场经济体的当地财务状况和宏观经济基本面相比，贷款国的财务压力是更重要的驱动因素。在全球金融危机期间，经历过危机的国家和没有经历过危机的国家都可以得到这样的结果。即使在全球金融危机时期之后，这种结果通常也保持不变，但程度较小。