Despite 20 years of increasing acceptance, implementing complexity-appropriate methods for ex-post evaluation remains a challenge: instead of focusing on complex interventions, methods need to help evaluators better explore how policies (no matter how simple) take place in real-world, open, dynamic systems where many intertwined factors about the cases being targeted affect outcomes in numerous ways. To assist in this advance, we developed case-based scenario simulation, a new visually intuitive evaluation tool grounded in a data-driven, case-based, computational modelling approach, which evaluators can use to explore counterfactuals, status-quo trends, and what-if scenarios for some potential set of real or imagined interventions. To demonstrate the value and versatility of case-based scenario simulation we explore four published evaluations that differ in design (cross sectional, longitudinal, and experimental) and purpose (learning or accountability), and present a prospective view of how case-based scenario simulation could support and enhance evaluators’ efforts in these complex contexts.

中文翻译：

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用于事后评估的基于案例的建模和情景模拟

尽管 20 年来接受度越来越高，但为事后评估实施适合复杂性的方法仍然是一个挑战：方法不是专注于复杂的干预措施，而是需要帮助评估者更好地探索政策（无论多么简单）在现实世界中是如何发生的，开放、动态的系统，其中关于目标案件的许多相互交织的因素以多种方式影响结果。为了推进这一进程，我们开发了基于案例的场景模拟，这是一种基于数据驱动、基于案例的计算建模方法的全新视觉直观评估工具，评估人员可以使用它来探索反事实、现状趋势以及- 如果针对某些潜在的真实或想象的干预措施的情景。