Abstract

Do political parties change their position when military casualties increase? Several studies demonstrate that once military casualties increase, public support for sometimes even the government itself declines. With this potential backlash, once governing parties are faced with military casualties, do they (1) maintain that intervention was the “right thing” to do and even escalate their commitment by becoming even more pro-military or (2) try to avoid the blame and downplay the issue, i.e., “not mentioning the war”? And do the opposition parties become more negative or more positive about the military? To evaluate this, we measure the position on military issues in parties’ election manifestoes. Our dataset comprises 326 party policy changes in eleven Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and focuses on post-Cold War military interventions. By using pooled time-series cross-sectional analysis, we find that opposition parties and governing parties respond differently. Generally, governing parties become more negative in their manifesto and opposition parties more positive. We also demonstrate important differences between party families and pre/post-9/11. Our analyses show that whether political parties change policy course once confronted with negative outcomes depends on their position in office, and also the direction in which they change policy depends on political ideology.

中文翻译：

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不要提及战争与不断升级的承诺：政党对军事伤亡的回应

摘要

军事伤亡增加时，政党是否会改变立场？多项研究表明，一旦军事人员伤亡人数增加，公众对政府甚至有时甚至政府的支持就会下降。面对这种潜在的抵制，一旦执政党面临军事伤亡，他们是否（1）坚持认为干预是“正确的事”，甚至通过变得更加亲军事而升级其承诺，或者（2）试图避免这种冲突。责怪和轻描淡写这个问题，即“不提战争”？反对派对军方是否变得消极或更积极？为了对此进行评估，我们测量了当事方选举宣言中军事问题的立场。我们的数据集包含11个经济合作与发展组织（OECD）国家中的326个政党政策变化，并侧重于冷战后的军事干预。通过使用汇总的时间序列横截面分析，我们发现反对党和执政党的反应不同。通常，执政党的宣言变得更加消极，反对党则更加积极。我们还演示了派对家庭与9/11之前/之后的重要区别。我们的分析表明，政党一旦面临负面结果，是否会改变政策进程，取决于其执政地位，而改变政策的方向也取决于政治意识形态。我们发现反对党和执政党的反应不同。通常，执政党的宣言变得更加消极，反对党则更加积极。我们还演示了派对家庭与9/11之前/之后的重要区别。我们的分析表明，政党一旦面临负面结果，是否会改变政策进程，取决于他们的任职状况，而政党改变政策的方向也取决于政治意识形态。我们发现反对党和执政党的反应不同。通常，执政党的宣言变得更加消极，反对党则更加积极。我们还演示了派对家庭与9/11之前/之后的重要区别。我们的分析表明，政党一旦面临负面结果，是否会改变政策进程，取决于其任职状况，而政党改变政策的方向也取决于政治意识形态。