Banding waterfowl, in combination with the citizen science provided by hunters that report marks from harvested birds, is a long‐standing, institutionalized practice for estimating probabilities of survival and exploitation (i.e., legal harvest from such populations). Range‐wide population abundance can also be estimated by combining the number of banded individuals with the number harvested from the population. Waterfowl marking with uniquely identifiable bands done during late summer in North America is often referred to as pre‐season banding. For example, mass capture of arctic geese for pre‐season banding is normally done in July (nonbreeders) or August (failed breeders and breeders with young) during flightless molt of respective groups. An important assumption for proper inference about harvest probability provided from such samples is that there is no mortality, natural or otherwise, during the interval between when individuals are marked and when hunting seasons begin. We evaluated the effect of variable mortality that could occur between marking and subsequent hunting seasons on estimates of survival, recovery, and harvest probabilities using simulation pertinent to a typical waterfowl species. We fit a Brownie tag‐recovery model to the simulated data and calculated the estimator bias that resulted from various pre‐harvest mortality scenarios. There was no effect on survival probability during the interval between annual banding in subsequent years, but recovery probability, and thus estimated harvest probability, was directly and inversely related to pre‐harvest mortality of juveniles. The magnitude of negative bias in harvest probability of juveniles increased further as the fraction of the population sampled declined. If the probability of pre‐harvest mortality differs between marked and unmarked individuals, the negative bias in harvest probability results in overestimates of derived abundance that increases as the proportion of marked individuals in the population declines. We used our observed results to propose an explanation for occasional biologically improbable estimates of abundance of juvenile lesser snow geese (Anser caerulescens). © 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译：

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收获前死亡率对收获率和衍生种群估计的影响

结合水禽，结合猎人提供的民俗科学来报告已收获鸟类的标记，是一种长期的制度化做法，用于估计生存和剥削的可能性（即从这些种群合法收获的概率）。还可以通过组合带状个体的数量与从种群中收获的数量，来估计范围广泛的种群数量。在北美夏末以独特的可识别带进行水禽标记通常被称为季前带。例如，通常在七月（非繁殖者）或八月（不合格的种鸽和有年幼的种鸽）在各组不蜕皮的过程中对北极鹅进行大规模捕获，以进行季前绑带。从这样的样本中正确推断出收获概率的一个重要假设是，在标记个人和狩猎季节开始之间的间隔中，没有自然或其他原因的死亡率。我们使用与典型水禽物种有关的模拟评估了在标记季节和随后的狩猎季节之间可能发生的可变死亡率对生存，恢复和收获概率估计的影响。我们将布朗尼标签回收模型拟合到模拟数据中，并计算了各种收获前死亡率情景所导致的估计偏差。在随后几年的年度分条之间的间隔中，对生存概率没有影响，但是恢复概率，从而估计了收获概率，与未成年人的收获前死亡率有直接和相反的关系。随着抽样人口比例的下降，少年收成概率的负偏差进一步增加。如果有标记和无标记个体的收获前死亡率概率不同，则收获概率的负偏差会导致高估派生丰度，而随着种群中有标记个体的比例下降，衍生丰度就会增加。我们使用观察到的结果为偶尔的生物学上不太可能估计的幼小雪雁的数量提出了解释（如果有标记和无标记个体的收获前死亡率概率不同，则收获概率的负偏差会导致高估派生丰度，而随着种群中有标记个体的比例下降，衍生丰度就会增加。我们使用观察到的结果为偶尔的生物学上不太可能估计的幼小雪雁的数量提出了解释（如果有标记和无标记个体的收获前死亡率概率不同，则收获概率的负偏差会导致高估派生丰度，而随着种群中有标记个体的比例下降，衍生丰度就会增加。我们使用观察到的结果为偶尔的生物学上不太可能估计的幼小雪雁的数量提出了解释（Anser caerulescens）。©2021作者。Wiley Periodicals LLC代表野生动物协会出版的《野生动物管理杂志》。