Potential environmental consequences of oil leakages (i.e., continuous uncontrolled releases at low flow rate over a long period of time) need to be taken into consideration in the ongoing development of plug and abandonment (P&A) activities on the Norwegian continental shelf. Regulations of P&A wells employ a “zero leakage” target; however, environmental risk monitoring strategies for permanent abandonment are not yet in place. Predicting and estimating the consequences of adverse environmental impacts through a modeling approach can play a key role in evaluating and monitoring environmental risk. In this paper, we present a modeling study of the fate and effects of an oil leakage from abandoned wells using a theoretical scenario on the Norwegian continental shelf. Environmental impact factors (EIFs) derived from the Dose related Risk and Effect Assessment Model (DREAM), previously designed to characterize the effects of produced water discharges, were used to assess impacts of leakages from abandoned wells. Exposure assessments for the EIFs were modified to include specific hydrocarbon contributions derived from different sized oil droplets from the leakages. Because DREAM is not generally used for chronic low‐rate oil releases, an update of the database with chronic predicted no‐effect concentrations, as input data for effects modeling, was conducted. In general, EIFs became stable after simulations of 30 d. The area from the release site and up to a few hundred meters southward had the most locations of high impact. Chronic exposure and effects on organisms potentially occurred as a steady‐state effect over a long period. Risks, at which more than 95% of species will be negatively affected, appeared surrounding the release site, indicating a need for mitigation measures. These results show that the EIF tool can be used for risk management and P&A regulation by identifying potentially harmful leakages. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:626–638. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC)

中文翻译：

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使用环境影响因子工具对废弃海底井的环境命运和漏油影响进行建模

在挪威大陆架上进行的即插即弃（P＆A）活动的持续发展中，必须考虑到漏油的潜在环境后果（即长时间低流量连续释放失控）。P＆A井法规规定了“零泄漏”目标。但是，尚未制定永久放弃的环境风险监测策略。通过建模方法预测和估计不利的环境影响的后果可以在评估和监视环境风险中发挥关键作用。在本文中，我们使用挪威大陆架上的理论情景，对废弃井漏油的命运和影响进行了建模研究。从剂量相关的风险和影响评估模型（DREAM）衍生而来的环境影响因子（EIF），以前旨在表征采出水的影响，用于评估废弃井泄漏的影响。对EIF的暴露评估进行了修改，以包括来自泄漏的大小不同的油滴的特定碳氢化合物贡献。由于DREAM通常不用于长期低速率放油，因此对数据库进行了更新，将慢性预测的无效应浓度作为效应建模的输入数据。通常，在30 d的模拟后，EIF变得稳定。从释放地点到最南边几百米的区域是影响最大的地点。长期暴露和对生物的影响很可能长期处于稳态状态。超过95％的物种将受到负面影响的风险出现在释放地点周围，表明需要采取缓解措施。这些结果表明，通过识别潜在的有害泄漏，EIF工具可用于风险管理和P＆A监管。整合环境评估管理2021; 17：626–638。©2021作者。Wiley Periodicals LLC代表环境毒理化学协会（SETAC）发布的《综合环境评估与管理》