The episodic, seasonal hydrology of Lake Eyre Basin (LEB) rivers produce a series of waterholes which provide critical aquatic refugia and essential water supply during predominantly dry periods. This study used direct measures of water loss, regional meteorological data, and waterhole bathymetry to develop calibrated waterhole persistence models in a range of waterhole types throughout the Queensland portion of the LEB. Evaporation was a major driver of waterhole persistence, whereas the influence of other water balance parameters (e.g. groundwater discharge, seepage, vegetation utilisation) varied between waterholes and years. Estimates of waterhole persistence were extrapolated to the regional scale using a modelled time-series of waterhole level data and Landsat satellite imagery (1988–2019). Strong relationships were calculated between waterhole level and waterhole area (r² = 0.88) and waterhole level and number of waterholes (r² = 0.79) for all regional waterhole zones. Using these relationships and predicted evaporation rates under three possible future greenhouse gas scenarios, modelling showed that, by 2070, the number of persistent waterholes could reduce by up to 67% over 12 month period without flow. Similarly, reductions in waterhole area of up to 72% are possible under drier climate scenarios. These results potentially represent a significant risk to the aquatic ecosystems and other waterhole-dependent users for an already limited resource.

艾尔湖盆地（LEB）河流的季节性季节性水文学产生了一系列水坑，这些水坑在干旱期间提供了关键的水生避难所和必要的水供应。这项研究使用了直接的失水量度，区域气象数据和水坑测深法，以建立整个LEB昆士兰州部分水坑类型中的校准水坑持久性模型。蒸发是水坑持久性的主要驱动力，而其他水平衡参数（例如，地下水排放，渗流，植被利用）的影响在水坑和年份之间变化。使用模拟的水坑水位数据和Landsat卫星图像的时间序列（1988-2019年），将水坑持久性的估计值外推到区域范围。²  = 0.88），以及 所有区域水坑区域的水坑水位和水坑数量（r ² = 0.79）。利用这些关系和在三种可能的未来温室气体情景下的预测蒸发率，模型表明，到2070年，在没有流量的情况下，持续的水坑数量将在12个月内减少多达67％。同样，在较干燥的气候情况下，水坑面积最多可减少72％。对于已经有限的资源，这些结果可能对水生生态系统和其他依赖水坑的用户构成重大风险。