This research investigates farm households' adaptations to climate change-driven monsoon floods in the rural district of Nowshera, Pakistan. Some households in these flood-affected communities have undertaken autonomous adaptations to flooding. We surveyed five hundred farm households from both flood-affected and unaffected villages to investigate the factors driving the uptake of the following autonomous flood adaptations: plinth elevation, grain storage, participation in communal flood preparations and the creation of edge-of-field tree lined shelterbelts. We used both binary and multivariate probit regressions to investigate the correlation across adaptation options. Empirical results suggest that access to agricultural extension services, off-farm work opportunities, past duration of standing floodwaters, farm to river distance, receiving post-flooding support and tribal diversity are the main drivers of flood adaptations. Moreover, we report the complementary uptake of adaptations in pairs. Given the prediction of climate change-driven flooding in the Hindu Kush, we recommend cost-effective policies that increase the resilience of vulnerable agricultural-dependent rural communities. In addition, we report that respondents perceived a change in weather towards hotter and dryer weather over the last ten years.

这项研究调查了巴基斯坦农舍农村地区农户对气候变化驱动的季风洪水的适应性。这些受洪水影响社区中的一些家庭已经对洪水进行了自主适应。我们调查了受洪水影响和未受影响的村庄的500个农户，以调查驱动以下自动洪水适应措施采用的因素：柱基抬高，谷物储存，参与公共洪水准备工作以及创建边缘林木防护林。我们使用了二进制和多元概率回归来研究各种适应方案之间的相关性。实证结果表明，获得农业推广服务，非农工作机会，过去的持续洪水持续时间，农场到河流的距离，获得洪水后的支持和部落的多样性是洪水适应的主要驱动力。此外，我们报告了成对的互补适应性摄取。考虑到兴都库什（Hindus Kush）的气候变化驱动洪水的预测，我们建议采用具有成本效益的政策，以增加依赖农业的脆弱农村社区的复原力。此外，我们报告说，在过去的十年中，受访者认为天气向着干热天气转变。