This article evaluates the effects of external financial liberalization on Brazilian macroeconomic performance from 1995 to 2016. Its main contributions are to assess the influence of the global financial cycle on the level of external financial liberalization and to analyse the short‐ and long‐run macroeconomic effects of such liberalization on the performance of a peripheral economy in the global currency hierarchy. Methodologically, the article employs the Markov‐Switching Vector Autoregressive and Vector Error Correction models. The results show that the global financial cycle directly affects cross‐border financial flows and frames the impact of external financial liberalization on the macroeconomic performance. The article concludes that external financial liberalization has negative macroeconomic effects in the short run and generates a trade‐off between stability and growth in the long run.

中文翻译：

---

新兴国家的外部金融自由化与宏观经济绩效：对巴西案例的实证评估

本文评估了1995年至2016年外部金融自由化对巴西宏观经济绩效的影响。其主要贡献是评估全球金融周期对外部金融自由化水平的影响，并分析短期和长期的宏观经济影响自由化对外围货币在全球货币体系中的表现的影响。从方法上讲，本文采用了马尔可夫切换向量自回归模型和向量误差校正模型。结果表明，全球金融周期直接影响跨境资金流动，并构架了外部金融自由化对宏观经济绩效的影响。