Why has the probability of going to prison after a felony conviction increased since the early 1980s? Social scientists often try to answer this question through macro‐level research that is aimed at examining correlations between prison admissions and crime rates or sociopolitical characteristics of states. That type of macro‐level inquiry, however, does not allow for a close examination of how characteristics of offenders changed over time, and whether such changes are consequential for understanding trends in the use of imprisonment. In the current study, I take a different approach—one in which case‐level data are observed over a lengthy time span—to investigate why the likelihood of going to prison for a given crime persistently increased for several decades. The results of analyses of more than 350,000 felony cases sentenced in Minnesota during a 33‐year period show that the probability of a defendant receiving a prison sentence increased from 1981 to 2013, as would be expected. The primary reason for the rising probability of imprisonment was the significant increase in the average offender's criminal record, which more than doubled during the observation period.

中文翻译：

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累积影响：为什么增加徒刑*

自1980年代初以来，为什么在重罪定罪后入狱的可能性增加了？社会科学家经常试图通过宏观研究来回答这个问题，该研究旨在检验监狱入狱与犯罪率或国家的社会政治特征之间的相关性。但是，这种类型的宏观调查不允许仔细研究罪犯的特征如何随时间变化，以及这种变化是否对理解使用监禁的趋势产生了必然影响。在当前的研究中，我采用了一种不同的方法（一种方法是在很长的时间内观察到案例级别的数据）来调查为什么某项犯罪被判入狱的可能性持续数十年不断增加。超过350个分析结果，在33年的时间里，明尼苏达州有000例重罪案件被判刑，这表明被告被判监禁的可能性从1981年到2013年有所增加。入狱可能性增加的主要原因是，平均罪犯的犯罪记录显着增加，在观察期内增加了一倍以上。