The aim of this study is to identify the relationship between fiscal policy and sovereign credit ratings within a comparative framework for the post-2000 period. In this study, indicators affecting credit notes of three rating agencies through domestic savings, growth, inflation, unemployment, current account balance and public revenues, public expenditures, primary deficits, budget deficits and public debt data for selected countries for the period between 2001 and 2016 are evaluated by using probit analysis under four scenarios. The study reveals that growth, unemployment, savings, current account deficit and public debt have come to the forefront in the realizations and far estimates, while the main indicators in the public sector, namely the impact of expenditure, deficit, primary balance and debt on rating decisions, are more dominant in the near estimates. These results show that the factors that are differentiating the credit rating evaluation period are the indicators of public finance. It seems that models used by the credit institutions are more likely to show short-term outcomes in the sense of public finance parameters mainly reflecting the macroeconomic responsibility level of the ruling governments.

中文翻译：

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财政政策如何影响利率：三个主要信用评级机构的主权信用票据的概率分析

本研究的目的是在2000年后时期的比较框架内确定财政政策与主权信用等级之间的关系。在这项研究中，指标通过三个国家的储蓄，增长，通货膨胀，失业，经常账户余额和公共收入，公共支出，主要赤字，预算赤字和公共债务数据影响了三个评级机构的信用票据，这些国家在2001年至2006年期间在四种情况下使用概率分析对2016年进行了评估。该研究表明，增长，失业，储蓄，经常账户赤字和公共债务在变现和远期估计中都处于最前列，而公共部门的主要指标，即支出，赤字，基本平衡和债务对经济的影响。评分决定，在近期估算中占主导地位。这些结果表明，区别信用评级评估期限的因素是公共财政的指标。在公共财政参数的意义上，信贷机构使用的模型似乎更有可能显示短期结果，这主要反映了执政政府的宏观经济责任水平。