This article examines the behavior of the small-capitalization stock return cycle. The authors compare the period 1980–2020 with a study for the period 1960–1995. They find that in the earlier period small-cap stocks earned a return premium when the economy was rising, long-term rates were rising, the US dollar was rising, and market volatility was falling. During the last decade, a strong move in large-cap stocks dwarfed the small-cap premium. The authors conjecture that a change in the character of economic growth, rising long-term rates, and oversold small-cap conditions may reverse this. TOPICS: Portfolio theory, portfolio construction, wealth management Key Findings • The small-cap premium appears to have waned in the last 20 years. • The premium is, however, still related to economic cycles. • Economic conditions and valuations now favor a small-stock premium.

中文翻译：

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小盘股分配：入场时间

本文研究了小写股票退货周期的行为。作者将1980-2020年时期与1960-1995年时期的研究进行了比较。他们发现，在较早时期，经济增长，长期利率上升，美元上涨以及市场波动性下降时，小型股票获得了收益溢价。在过去十年中，大型股票的强劲走势使小型股票的溢价相形见war。作者推测，经济增长特征的变化，长期利率的上升以及小盘股的超卖状况可能会扭转这种情况。主题：投资组合理论，投资组合构建，财富管理主要发现•在过去的20年中，小盘股溢价似乎在下降。•但是，溢价仍然与经济周期有关。