Our information about the fourteenth-century plague in Central Asia, or indeed anywhere east of the Crimea/Caspian, derives from a close analysis of the epigraphical evidence from three East Syriac (Nestorian) cemeteries not far from Issyk-Kul’ lake in northern Kyrgyzstan. The absence of palaeogenetic data to confirm it could be partially rectified by both textual and palaeoclimatological data. The ratio of mortality rates between “normal” and plague years in the Issyk-Kul’ communities is not unlike that in Europe during the plague years 1348 to 1350. A proper appreciation of the pandemic outbreak requires setting its timing in a climatic context. After two pluvial episodes in the 1310s and 1320s, precipitation levels in Issyk-Kul’ during the 1330s underwent a sharp decline, thereby depriving sylvatic rodents of sufficient grass to sustain their high population density. Hence, the plague pathogen and its vectors needed an alternative host to maintain their activity. Anthropogenic factors, including international trade and military campaigns along Central Asian trade routes, may also have contributed to the outbreak and spread of the plague. The Issyk-Kul’ mortality crisis ties into wider questions about the origins and initial spread of plague after the “big bang” of the thirteenth century, whereby four new plague branches emerged (possibly in Central Asia).

中文翻译：

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湖边的死亡：十四世纪中亚的死亡率危机

我们关于中亚或克里米亚/里海以东任何地方的14世纪鼠疫的信息来自对吉尔吉斯斯坦北部伊西克库尔湖不远的三座东叙利亚（Nestorian）公墓的墓志证据的详细分析。文本和古气候资料都可以部分纠正古生物学数据的不足以证实这一点。Issyk-Kul社区的“正常”和鼠疫年死亡率之比与欧洲在1348年至1350年鼠疫年中的死亡率无异。要正确了解大流行的爆发，就需要在气候背景下确定其时机。在1310年代和1320年代两次暴雨之后，伊西克库尔地区的降水水平在1330年代急剧下降，因此剥夺了啮齿类动物啮齿动物的足够的草以维持其高种群密度。因此，鼠疫病原体及其载体需要替代宿主来维持其活性。人为因素，包括中亚贸易路线上的国际贸易和军事运动，也可能导致了鼠疫的爆发和蔓延。伊西克库尔（Issyk-Kul）的死亡危机与13世纪“大爆炸”之后鼠疫的起源和最初传播的广泛问题联系在一起，由此出现了四个新的鼠疫分支机构（可能在中亚）。也可能是瘟疫的爆发和蔓延的原因。伊西克库尔（Issyk-Kul）的死亡危机与13世纪“大爆炸”之后鼠疫的起源和最初传播的广泛问题联系在一起，由此出现了四个新的鼠疫分支机构（可能在中亚）。也可能是瘟疫的爆发和蔓延的原因。伊西克库尔（Issyk-Kul）的死亡危机与13世纪“大爆炸”之后鼠疫的起源和最初传播的广泛问题联系在一起，由此出现了四个新的鼠疫分支机构（可能在中亚）。