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The ‘high infant mortality’ trap’: the relationship between birth intervals and infant mortality – the example of two localities in Bohemia between the 17th and 19th centuries
The History of the Family ( IF 1.0 ) Pub Date : 2019-09-04 , DOI: 10.1080/1081602x.2019.1650792
Ludmila Fialova 1 , Klara Hulikova Tesarkova 1 , Barbora Janakova Kuprova 1
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT The article further develops the term ‘high infant mortality trap’ as an expression of the concept supposing a mutual relationship between short average birth intervals (corresponding usually to high fertility) and high level of infant mortality. This mutual relationship is among other a consequence of the effect of the same or similar factors standing behind both processes (fertility, infant mortality). In the paper, this relationship is evaluated through the effect of the selected explanatory variables on the probability of infant death (using the Binomial logistic regression) as well as length of birth-birth intervals or time duration from the infant death to the successive birth (using the Cox regression). In the analytical part, the concept is evaluated using data from two localities in Bohemia (today the Czech Republic). The localities differ according the socio-economic as well as ethnic characteristics, what might have affected also the demographic behaviour. The area of the Central Europe has not been fully described in the historical demographic works yet, so this study brings the possibility of comparison of this area with other areas already studied. Particular parts of the analysis prove the assumption of the existence of the high infant mortality trap before the onset of demographic transition.

中文翻译:

“婴儿死亡率高的陷阱”:出生间隔和婴儿死亡率之间的关系-以波希米亚的两个地方为例,在17和19世纪

摘要本文进一步发展了“高婴儿死亡率陷阱”一词,作为该概念的一种表述,它假设较短的平均出生间隔(通常与高生育率相对应)和高婴儿死亡率之间存在相互关系。这种相互关系是两个过程(生育力,婴儿死亡率)背后相同或相似因素共同作用的结果。在本文中,通过选择的解释变量对婴儿死亡的可能性(使用二项逻辑对数回归)以及出生间隔时间或从婴儿死亡到连续出生的持续时间的影响来评估这种关系(使用Cox回归)。在分析部分,使用波西米亚(今天为捷克共和国)两个地区的数据对概念进行了评估。各地因社会经济和种族特征而异,这可能也影响了人口行为。中欧地区尚未在历史人口统计工作中得到充分描述,因此这项研究带来了将该地区与已经研究过的其他地区进行比较的可能性。分析的特定部分证明了人口转变开始之前存在高婴儿死亡率陷阱的假设。
更新日期:2019-09-04
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