Several recent international health crises have revealed significant vulnerabilities in global pandemic preparedness. The 2014 Ebola fever epidemic expanded into an international threat far more quickly than experts anticipated, and the 2018 Ebola fever epidemic continues to expand, even with new technological innovations designed to control the disease. The 2015 yellow fever outbreak in Angola exhausted global vaccine supplies and put millions of people at risk. This article argues that global health authorities failed to anticipate the magnitude of these outbreaks because the field has not been updated to address the ways recent changes in international political economy are combining with environmental instabilities of the Anthropocene to increase epidemiological risks. Many public health textbooks and teaching materials continue to rely on variants of 20th-century modernization theory to explain and predict global health trends. Since the end of the Cold War, however, there has been a dramatic reconfiguration of governance in many parts of the world, and these macro-level changes are accelerating ecological destruction and fueling armed conflict in ways that will reduce the range and effectiveness of public health methods and prevention technologies that were successful during the 20th century. The combined effect of these institutional and environmental changes will increase global pandemic risks in the Anthropocene, even for infectious diseases that are easily preventable today.

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微生物叛乱：人类世间的全球健康理论

最近发生的几次国际卫生危机表明，全球大流行的防范工作存在重大漏洞。2014年的埃博拉热疫情以比国际专家预期的更快的速度扩展为国际威胁，而即使有旨在控制该病的新技术创新，2018年的埃博拉热流行仍在继续扩大。2015年安哥拉的黄热病暴发耗尽了全球疫苗供应，使数百万人处于危险之中。本文认为，全球卫生当局未能预料到这些暴发的严重性，因为该领域尚未更新以解决国际政治经济的近期变化与人类世环境不稳定性相结合以增加流行病学风险的方式。许多公共卫生教科书和教材继续依靠20世纪现代化理论的变体来解释和预测全球卫生趋势。但是，自冷战结束以来，世界许多地方的治安管理方式发生了戏剧性的变化，这些宏观层面的变化正在加速生态破坏，并以减少公共范围和效力的方式加剧武装冲突。 20世纪成功的健康方法和预防技术。这些制度和环境变化的综合影响将增加人类世的全球大流行风险，即使对于今天很容易预防的传染病也是如此。在世界许多地方，治理已发生了戏剧性的重新配置，而这些宏观层面的变化正在加速生态破坏，并以减少在战争期间成功的公共卫生方法和预防技术的范围和有效性的方式加剧武装冲突。 20世纪。这些制度和环境变化的综合影响将增加人类世的全球大流行风险，即使对于今天很容易预防的传染病也是如此。在世界许多地方，治理已发生了戏剧性的重新配置，而这些宏观层面的变化正在加速生态破坏，并以减少在战争期间成功的公共卫生方法和预防技术的范围和有效性的方式加剧武装冲突。 20世纪。这些制度和环境变化的综合影响将增加人类世的全球大流行风险，即使对于今天很容易预防的传染病也是如此。