Hispanics' paradoxical life expectancy advantage over whites has largely been attributed to Hispanics' lower smoking prevalence. Yet across birth cohorts, smoking prevalence has declined for whites and Hispanics, and Hispanics' obesity prevalence has increased substantially. Our analysis uses data from the 1989 to 2014 National Health Interview Survey and Linked Mortality files to investigate whether these trends could lead Hispanics to lose their comparative mortality advantage. Simulations suggest that foreign-born Hispanics' life expectancy advantage over whites is likely to persist because cohort trends in smoking and obesity largely offset each other. However, U.S.-born Hispanics' life expectancy advantage over whites is likely to diminish or disappear entirely as the 1970s and 1980s birth cohorts age due to increases in obesity prevalence and the relatively high mortality risks of those who are obese. Results have important implications for understanding the future of immigrants' health advantages and ethnic disparities in health.

中文翻译：

---

悖论结束的迹象？吸烟和肥胖的队列变化和西班牙裔预期寿命优势

西班牙裔美国人的预期寿命优势优于白人，这在很大程度上归因于西班牙裔美国人的吸烟率较低。然而，在整个出生队列中，白人和西班牙裔的吸烟率下降了，西班牙裔的肥胖率也大大提高了。我们的分析使用了1989年至2014年国家健康访问调查和关联死亡率文件中的数据来调查这些趋势是否可能导致西班牙裔美国人失去其相对的死亡率优势。模拟表明，外国人出生的西班牙裔美国人的预期寿命优势可能会持续超过白人，因为吸烟和肥胖的人群趋势在很大程度上相互抵消。但是，美国出生的西班牙裔 由于肥胖症患病率的增加和肥胖者相对较高的死亡风险，与1970年相比，白人的预期寿命优势可能会完全消失或消失。结果对理解移民的健康优势和健康方面的种族差异具有重要意义。