We identify a species of experiment—Kon-Tiki experiments—used to demonstrate the competence of a cause to produce a certain effect, and we examine their role in the historical sciences. We argue that Kon-Tiki experiments are used to test middle-range theory, to test assumptions within historical narratives, and to open new avenues of inquiry. We show how the results of Kon-Tiki experiments are involved in projective (rather than consequentialist) inferences, and we argue (against Kyle Stanford) that reliance on projective inferences does not provide historical scientists with any special protection against the problem of unconceived alternatives.

中文翻译：

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Kon-Tiki 实验

我们确定了一种实验——Kon-Tiki 实验——用于证明一个原因产生某种结果的能力，我们研究了它们在历史科学中的作用。我们认为，Kon-Tiki 实验用于检验中程理论、检验历史叙述中的假设以及开辟新的探究途径。我们展示了 Kon-Tiki 实验的结果如何涉及投射（而不是结果论）推理，并且我们认为（反对凯尔·斯坦福）依赖投射推理并没有为历史科学家提供任何特殊的保护，以应对未设想的替代问题。