Abstract Fertility postponement and the concomitant decline in fertility levels are the most prominent trends in the demographic behaviours of the former Eastern Bloc countries in Central Europe. A number of studies have analysed period fertility development but the cohort perspective is often neglected. The postponement transition has evolved over a long time span and affected many cohorts, so the cohort approach is appropriate for studying long-term changes in fertility tempo and quantum. A cohort analysis engenders an analysis in detail of the onset, dynamics and ultimate extent of this process. Using the cohort benchmark model, we have been able to pinpoint differences in postponement and recuperation levels and have combined it with projection scenarios. Thus we have been able to model the hypothetical trajectory of the completed cohort fertility rate. Our analysis highlights differences in the timing of the onset of the postponement transition, its trajectory and extent, as well as in the recuperation of postponed childbearing. These findings suggest differences in completed fertility across the selected four Central European countries are likely to continue and perhaps increase.

中文翻译：

---

中欧生育率推迟过渡和低生育率的队列研究

摘要生育率的推迟和生育率的随之下降是中东欧前东欧集团国家人口行为的最主要趋势。许多研究已经分析了时期生育能力的发展，但是人们常常忽略了同类研究的观点。延期过渡已经发展了很长时间，并影响了许多队列，因此队列方法适合研究生育速度和量子的长期变化。队列分析可以详细分析此过程的发生，动态和最终范围。使用队列基准模型，我们能够查明延迟和恢复水平的差异，并将其与预测方案结合起来。因此，我们已经能够模拟出完整的队列生育率的假设轨迹。我们的分析突出显示了推迟过渡开始的时间，轨迹和程度以及推迟生育的恢复之间的差异。这些发现表明，在选定的四个中欧国家，已完成的生育率差异可能会继续存在，甚至可能还会增加。