Abstract:Journal Impact Factors (JIFs) appear to increase for the majority of scientific journals. The current analysis was initiated to better define the dynamics of JIFs. Original data from the Journal Citation Reports, from 1997 to 2016, were analysed. The number of citations referring to publications of the previous two years was correlated with the number of articles and the increase in the number of articles. A model was calculated by smoothing the correlation curves. The mean JIF increased from 1.1 to 2.2 almost continuously. The model suggested that the mean JIF will asymptotically reach a maximum value of 2.6. The number of publications has been growing annually by a factor of 1.048. Correlating the overall number of countable citations with the number of published articles revealed a stable relationship of 6.3 citations referring to the previous two years. Validation of the model with a sample of forty-nine journals that have been published since 1961 showed that their recent JIF dynamics are well reflected in the data, but extrapolation of the current dynamics did not reflect the JIFs of these journals in the past. Average JIF is likely to reach a plateau in the future.

中文翻译：

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期刊影响因子的动态及其通货膨胀的限制

摘要：大多数科学期刊的期刊影响因子 (JIF) 似乎都在增加。目前的分析是为了更好地定义 JIF 的动态。分析了 1997 年至 2016 年期刊引证报告的原始数据。引用前两年出版物的引用次数与文章数量和文章数量的增加相关。通过平滑相关曲线来计算模型。平均 JIF 几乎连续从 1.1 增加到 2.2。该模型表明平均 JIF 将逐渐达到最大值 2.6。出版物的数量以每年 1.048 倍的速度增长。将可计数引用的总数与已发表文章的数量相关联，发现稳定的关系为 6。3 引用是指前两年。以 1961 年以来已出版的 49 种期刊为样本对模型进行验证，结果表明它们最近的 JIF 动态在数据中得到了很好的反映，但对当前动态的外推并未反映这些期刊过去的 JIF。未来平均 JIF 可能会达到一个平台期。