Urban transit riders’ use of mobile communication devices has grown markedly in recent years. Studies evaluating the usage of these devices have generally focused on only one or two points in time, limiting their ability to describe long-range trends. To foster insights into this issue, this study evaluated data from 15,531 passenger observations collected on 156 commuter trains on the metropolitan commuter rail system of Chicago, Illinois, from 2010 through 2015. The data show that the rate of technological usage is following an S-shaped pattern among passengers. The share of passengers using mobile communication devices at observed points grew sharpest during the first three years, rising from 25.6% in 2010 to 47.8% in 2013, a compounding annual rate of 23.1%. Between 2013 and 2015, the share rose to 56.2%, an annualized rate of just 8.4%. Over the five-year period, the share of passengers conducting visually-oriented activities on their devices increased at a faster rate than usage as a whole, whereas the share of passengers engaged in audio-only tasks has dropped. Multiple regression analysis shows that the rate of device usage on trains is highest on outbound trips (traveling away from downtown) and positively related to the income associated with the route traveled, with differences of more than five percentage points between lines of varying levels of affluence.

中文翻译：

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技术采用的S曲线：2010-2015年芝加哥地区通勤火车上的移动通信设备

近年来，城市公交乘客对移动通信设备的使用显着增长。评估这些设备使用情况的研究通常只关注一个或两个时间点，从而限制了它们描述长期趋势的能力。为了培养对此问题的见解，本研究评估了从2010年到2015年在伊利诺伊州芝加哥市的通勤铁路系统上的156条通勤火车上收集的15,531名乘客的观测数据。数据显示，技术使用率遵循S-乘客之间的异形图案。在前三年，使用移动通信设备的乘客比例在前三年中增长最快，从2010年的25.6％上升到2013年的47.8％，年复合增长率为23.1％。在2013年至2015年之间，这一比例上升至56.2％，年化增长率仅为8.4％。在过去的五年中，在设备上进行视觉定向活动的乘客比例以比整个使用情况更快的速度增加，而从事纯音频任务的乘客比例却有所下降。多元回归分析表明，火车出行的设备使用率在出站旅行（远离市中心）中最高，并且与所乘路线的收入成正相关，不同富裕程度的线路之间的差异超过五个百分点。