Over the next 30 years, technological innovation will make automobile travel more convenient. Automated and connected vehicles will perform an increasing number of driving tasks without human input and will lure customers away from traditional public transportation. This paper first explores key characteristics of public transportation demand in the United States today—based on an international comparison with other Western countries. Next, the paper provides potential pathways on how public transportation agencies and local governments in the United States could respond to the emergence of automated and connected vehicles. The paper argues that space efficiency in urbanized areas and the rush hour commute will remain public transportation’s key strengths. In addition, public transportation will retain its important role in providing mobility for all—in particular, for those who cannot afford costly automated and connected vehicles. To remain competitive with the car, public transportation agencies and governments have to harness emerging automated and connected technologies for public transportation, integrate public transportation with other mobility services, coordinate and integrate public transportation services regionally, and coordinate planning for public transportation and land use.

中文翻译：

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公共交通可以与自动和互联汽车竞争吗？

在未来30年中，技术创新将使汽车旅行更加便捷。自动化和联网的车辆将在没有人工干预的情况下执行越来越多的驾驶任务，并将吸引客户离开传统的公共交通工具。本文首先根据与其他西方国家的国际比较，探讨当今美国公共交通需求的关键特征。接下来，本文提供了潜在的途径，说明了美国的公共交通部门和地方政府如何应对自动和联网车辆的出现。该论文认为，城市化地区的空间效率和高峰时间通勤仍将是公共交通的主要优势。此外，公共交通将在为所有人提供出行方面继续发挥重要作用，尤其是对于那些负担不起昂贵的自动和联网车辆的人而言。为了保持与汽车的竞争优势，公共交通部门和政府必须利用新兴的自动化和互联技术来实现公共交通，将公共交通与其他出行服务整合，在区域内协调和整合公共交通服务以及协调公共交通和土地使用的规划。