ABSTRACT This article investigates the role of historical beliefs and experiences in threat perception. Drawing on the results of a representative survey in Lithuania, it demonstrates a link between public beliefs about the Soviet period and public assessments of the likelihood of Russian military invasion, NATO disintegration, and diminishing levels of national security. Additionally, the study places historical beliefs within a tapestry of other theoretically-informed factors related to the perception of military threats. The results speak in favor of social complexity, where past and present come to inform the Lithuanian public’s understanding of the future.

中文翻译：

---

面对过去、现在和未来：历史信仰和经验在立陶宛公众对军事威胁的看法中的作用

摘要 本文调查了历史信念和经验在威胁感知中的作用。它借鉴了立陶宛代表性调查的结果，证明了公众对苏联时期的看法与公众对俄罗斯军事入侵、北约解体和国家安全水平下降的可能性的评估之间存在联系。此外，该研究将历史信仰置于与军事威胁感知相关的其他理论知识因素的挂毯中。结果表明社会复杂性，其中过去和现在来告知立陶宛公众对未来的理解。