The objective of this study is to identify high-risk areas of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in South Korea using nationwide data collected for the disease cases that occurred during the period from December 2014 to April 2015. High-risk areas of FMD occurrence are defined as local clusters or hot spots, where the frequency of disease occurrence is higher than expected. An issue in the FMD detection study is in identifying a spatial pattern deviated significantly from the expected value under the null hypothesis that no spatial process is investigated. While identifying geographic clusters is challenging to reveal the causes of disease outbreak, it is most useful to detect and monitor potential areas of risk occurrence and suggest a further in-depth investigation. This study extended a traditional score statistic (SC) that has limited to identify the spatial pattern by proposing a spatiotemporal score statistic (STSC) that incorporates a temporal component into the SC approach. STSC, a local spatial statistic, was utilized to detect clusters around the known foci with a latent period. This study demonstrated STSC could better exploit the advantage of the original SC and improve the cluster detection due to the latent time component. The empirical results of STSC are expected to provide more useful policy implications with agencies in charge of preventing and controlling the spread of epidemics when deciding where to concentrate the limited resources available.

中文翻译：

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使用时空得分统计量识别口蹄疫暴发的高风险地区：以韩国为例

这项研究的目的是使用针对2014年12月至2015年4月期间发生的疾病病例的全国数据，确定韩国的口蹄疫（FMD）高危地区。口蹄疫的发生被定义为局部簇或热点，其中疾病的发生频率高于预期。FMD检测研究的一个问题是，在没有研究任何空间过程的原假设下，确定与预期值有明显偏差的空间模式。虽然识别地理集群对揭示疾病爆发的原因具有挑战性，但对检测和监视潜在的风险发生区域并建议进行进一步的深入调查最有用。这项研究扩展了传统分数统计量（SC），该统计量通过提出将时态成分纳入SC方法的时空分数统计量（STSC）来限制空间模式的识别。STSC是一种局部空间统计数据，用于检测潜伏期在已知焦点周围的聚类。这项研究表明，由于潜在时间的原因，STSC可以更好地利用原始SC的优势并改善聚类检测。在决定把有限的资源集中在哪里时，预计STSC的经验结果将对负责预防和控制流行病传播的机构提供更多有用的政策含义。利用局部空间统计量，以潜在周期检测已知焦点周围的聚类。这项研究表明，由于潜在时间的原因，STSC可以更好地利用原始SC的优势并改善聚类检测。在决定把有限的资源集中在哪里时，预计STSC的经验结果将对负责预防和控制流行病传播的机构提供更多有用的政策含义。利用局部空间统计量，以潜在周期检测已知焦点周围的聚类。这项研究表明，由于潜在时间的原因，STSC可以更好地利用原始SC的优势并改善聚类检测。在决定把有限的资源集中在哪里时，预计STSC的经验结果将对负责预防和控制流行病传播的机构提供更多有用的政策含义。