ABSTRACT

This study explores how the duration of missions affects the participation of women in United Nations (UN) peace operations. I argue that women are less likely to be deployed in the early stages of missions because new missions are associated with high levels of operational uncertainty, which is ultimately a type of risk. Instead, women’s participation will increase over time as the uncertainty decreases and the operating environment becomes more predictable. In an extended analysis, I also explore if the level of gender equality in a troop contributing country affects the decision to deploy women to the early phases of missions. Applying a large-N approach, I study the proportion of women in military contributions to UN peace operations between 2009 and 2015. Using a set of multilevel mixed-effects generalized linear models, the main argument find empirical support. However, when the robustness of the findings is challenged, there is indication that there could be additional factors that affect operational uncertainty and the perceived risk associated with an operating environment. The result of the extended analysis indicate that more gender equal countries are more prone to deploy larger proportions of female military personnel, regardless of when the deployment takes place.

摘要

这项研究探讨了特派团的任期如何影响妇女参与联合国和平行动。我认为，在特派团的早期阶段部署妇女的可能性较小，因为新特派团与高度的业务不确定性有关，这最终是一种风险。相反，随着不确定性的降低和运营环境的可预测性，女性的参与度将随着时间的流逝而增加。在进一步的分析中，我还将探讨部队派遣国的性别平等水平是否会影响将妇女部署到特派团初期阶段的决定。我采用大数N方法，研究了2009年至2015年间妇女在向联合国和平行动提供军事捐助中所占的比例。使用一组多层次的混合效应广义线性模型，主要论点找到经验支持。但是，当调查结果的可靠性受到质疑时，表明存在可能存在其他因素，这些因素会影响运营不确定性以及与运营环境相关的感知风险。扩展分析的结果表明，性别平等的国家越多，越倾向于部署更大比例的女性军事人员，而不管何时部署。