Abstract Research and practice in violence risk assessment in forensic mental health primarily focuses on risk factors; however consideration of protective factors may improve the accuracy and utility of assessments. Using a pseudo-prospective design, the predictive and incremental validity of protective factors was explored using the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) and Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 (HCR-20V3) in 75 male inpatients in a secure setting. Over a 12-month period, protective factors significantly predicted the absence of inpatient (institutional) violence and risk factors, particularly dynamic factors, predicted the presence of violence. Hierarchical logistic regression did not establish the incremental validity of the SAPROF. Preliminary evidence for the predictive and incremental validity of the Integrative Final Risk Judgment was found with individuals judged high risk being almost seven times more likely to engage in violence than those assessed as moderate risk. High risk ratings were associated with fewer protective factors and more risk factors. Therefore, whilst dynamic risk factors are clear targets for risk management, consideration of protective factors may contribute to overall estimates of risk and provide additional targets for intervention.

中文翻译：

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暴力风险评估中的保护因素：SAPROF和HCR-20V3的预测有效性

摘要法医心理健康中的暴力风险评估研究与实践主要集中在风险因素上。但是，考虑保护因素可以提高评估的准确性和实用性。采用假前瞻性设计，在安全的环境中，采用75例男性住院患者的保护性因素结构评估（SAPROF）和历史临床风险管理-20（HCR-20V3）探索了保护性因素的预测性和增量有效性。在12个月的时间里，保护因素显着预测了住院（机构）暴力的缺失，危险因素（尤其是动态因素）预测了暴力的存在。分层逻辑回归未确定SAPROF的递增有效性。发现综合性最终风险判断的预测性和增量有效性的初步证据是，被判定为高风险的人比被评估为中度风险的人高出暴力几率近七倍。高风险等级与更少的保护因子和更多的风险因子相关。因此，尽管动态风险因素是风险管理的明确目标，但考虑保护因素可能有助于总体风险估计并提供其他干预目标。