An increasing majority of armed conflicts worldwide are episodes of recurrence (i.e. armed conflicts that occur after another armed conflict ends in the same country). This trend motivates a growing collection of scholarship on the causes of recurrence, but empirical research on this topic supports contradictory conclusions. Engaging these contradictions, this article introduces a novel approach to retroductive comparative analysis, which adapts the logic of semi-structured interviews for use in historical research, to examine the features and causes of 58 cases of armed conflict recurrence that took place between 1946 and 2005. Through this analysis, I identify five varieties of recurrence that are substantively and causally distinct. My analysis identifies scope conditions for existing theories of recurrence and, more broadly, demonstrates how distinct configurations of power inequalities, political opportunities, and the pursuit of legitimacy shape the proximate causes of each variety of recurrence.

中文翻译：

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为何再次爆发武装冲突？一种新的分析方法

世界范围内越来越多的武装冲突是反复发作（即在同一国家的另一场武装冲突结束后发生的武装冲突）。这一趋势激发了越来越多关于复发原因的学术研究，但对这一主题的实证研究支持了相互矛盾的结论。针对这些矛盾，本文介绍了一种追溯比较分析的新方法，该方法采用半结构化访谈的逻辑用于历史研究，以检查 1946 年至 2005 年间发生的 58 起武装冲突重现的特征和原因。 . 通过这种分析，我确定了五种在本质上和因果上截然不同的复发。我的分析确定了现有递归理论的范围条件，更广泛地说，