ABSTRACT The study of nuclear proliferation has recently undergone a renaissance, one element of which is the widespread application of a particular statistical technique known as survival modeling. But survival models are often misapplied and this misapplication has consequences for our understanding of nuclear proliferation. Scholars of nuclear proliferation consistently fail to account for two methodological challenges present in survival modeling: selecting an appropriate distribution and meeting the proportional hazards assumption. We show by example how accounting for these challenges alters key results and has a bearing on current debates in the field. We endorse the continued, judicious application of methodologically sound survival models and conclude by highlighting three possible theoretical and methodological paths forward.

中文翻译：

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最适合的生存：模拟核扩散

摘要核扩散的研究最近经历了复兴，其中之一是被称为生存模型的特殊统计技术的广泛应用。但是生存模型常常被错误地应用，这种错误应用对我们对核扩散的理解产生了后果。核扩散学者一直未能解释生存模型中存在的两个方法挑战：选择适当的分布并满足比例风险假设。我们以示例的方式展示了解决这些挑战的方式如何改变关键结果，并与该领域当前的辩论息息相关。我们赞同在方法论上合理的生存模型的持续，明智的应用，并通过强调三种可能的理论和方法论前进的路径来得出结论。