ABSTRACT Episodes of genocide and politicide show remarkable variation in how long they last. Some end within months; others continue for decades. Why do some persist while others end soon after they start? I argue that uncertainty influences the duration of killing. When a government has difficulty identifying members of a target group, it is less certain that it has accomplished its violent goals vis-à-vis the group. Therefore, the more uncertain the government is about the source of the threat it faces, the longer its killing will last. Statistical analysis of all episodes of genocide and politicide from 1955 to 2011 supports these claims.

中文翻译：

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群体识别，不确定性以及种族灭绝和杀害剂的持续时间

摘要种族灭绝和杀人事件的发作持续时间有显着差异。一些在几个月内结束；其他人持续了数十年。为什么有些会持续存在，而另一些会在开始后很快结束呢？我认为不确定性会影响杀戮的持续时间。当政府难以确定目标群体的成员时，就不太可能确定它已经完成了针对该群体的暴力目标。因此，政府对所面临威胁的来源越不确定，其杀戮持续的时间就越长。对1955年至2011年所有种族灭绝和政治杀人事件的统计分析支持了这些说法。