ABSTRACT Are sanctions and sanctions threats costly for the sanctioning state? The costs of sanctions for the sender are an important feature of many theories developed to explain the use and utility of economic sanctions. Despite the prominence of this assumption in existing research, there are only a handful of studies that have endeavored to analyze or estimate the economic consequences of sanctions for sender states. This paper builds a theoretical framework that connects the costs of sanctions for sender firms with a phenomenon that can be observed, stock market data. Sanctions and sanctions threats should create market uncertainty that is reflected in stock price volatility for firms with commercial interests in targeted states. Comparisons are made using stock price data for firms within sectors at the same point in time, within sectors over time, and across sectors over time. The stock prices for firms with commercial interests in targeted states are more volatile than stock prices for comparable firms without commercial interests in targeted states. These spells of uncertainty not only reflect the costs of sanctions and sanctions threats for firms caused by interruptions in commercial activities but represent important costs for firms in-and-of themselves.

中文翻译：

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使用股票市场数据重新检查制裁的成本和制裁的威胁

摘要制裁和制裁威胁对制裁国家而言代价昂贵吗？对发送者的制裁费用是许多用来解释经济制裁的使用和效用的理论的重要特征。尽管在现有研究中这一假设很突出，但只有少数研究致力于分析或估计制裁对发送国的经济后果。本文建立了一个理论框架，该框架将对发件人公司的制裁成本与一种可以观察到的现象（股票市场数据）联系起来。制裁和制裁威胁应造成市场不确定性，这反映给在目标州拥有商业利益的公司的股票价格波动。使用行业内同一时间点的公司的股价数据进行比较，随着时间的推移在部门内部，以及随着时间的推移跨部门。在目标州具有商业利益的公司的股票价格比在目标国家没有商业利益的可比较公司的股票价格波动更大。这些不确定性不仅反映了制裁的成本和因商业活动中断而给企业带来的制裁威胁，而且代表了企业自身和内部的重要成本。